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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 74

Wilder than 74% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Southern over Florida16% chance · won 26-20
  • Runner-upArizona over Oregon16% chance · won 42-16
  • Runner-upUTSA over North Texas18% chance · won 21-13

Upsets

Tue, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
92%
8.0%
44
7
✓
BUF −22.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
27%
73%
44
13
✗
OHIO −9.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
50%
50%
35
17
✗
NIU −0.3
–
–

Thu, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Rice@UAB
86%
14%
37
34
✓
RICE −17.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#24UCF
11%
89%
17
41
✓
UCF −19.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
49%
51%
41
21
✗
PK
–
–

Fri, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@San Jose State
52%
48%
58
52
✓
NAVY −1.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#23Michigan State@Northwestern
65%
35%
30
6
✓
MSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@#22Louisville
7.6%
92%
17
24
✓
LOU −22.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
67%
33%
28
21
✓
DUKE −7.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Houston
31%
69%
24
17
✗
HOU −7.4
–
–
Final
Michigan@Iowa
47%
53%
21
24
✓
IOWA −0.9
–
–
Final
#21Oklahoma@#15Kansas State
34%
66%
41
31
✗
KSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Miami (FL)
9.1%
91%
26
45
✓
MIA −20.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
61%
39%
20
16
✓
ILL −4.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
63%
37%
24
17
✓
MSST −5.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC State
72%
28%
42
28
✓
ECU −9.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
44%
56%
17
16
✗
SYR −1.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Central Michigan
24%
76%
0
37
✓
CMU −10.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
95%
5.1%
58
7
✓
BGSU −26.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
32%
68%
56
59
✓
WYO −7.1
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Georgia State@Arkansas State
3.2%
97%
33
35
✓
ARST −29.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Florida Atlantic
5.7%
94%
10
55
✓
FAU −24.9
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@ArizonaUpset
84%
16%
16
42
✗
ORE −16.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@#1Florida State
<0.1%
>99%
14
80
✓
FSU −66.3
–
–
Final
#20BYU@Notre DameUpset
49%
51%
13
23
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@#13LSU
48%
52%
10
34
✓
LSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Maryland
41%
59%
29
26
✗
MD −3.3
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@Minnesota
80%
20%
20
7
✓
WIS −13.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#5Ohio State
7.0%
93%
14
42
✓
OSU −23.2
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Penn State
43%
57%
23
20
✗
PSU −2.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@North TexasUpset
18%
82%
21
13
✗
UNT −14.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington State
59%
41%
37
49
✗
UTAH −4.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#25Utah State
14%
86%
0
13
✓
USU −16.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Southern Miss
86%
14%
42
21
✓
MTSU −17.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tulane
19%
81%
3
45
✓
TULN −13.5
–
–
Final
California@#10Stanford
0.9%
99%
13
63
✓
STAN −37.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Fresno State
6.1%
94%
28
69
✓
FRES −24.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@FIU
95%
4.6%
48
10
✓
MRSH −27.4
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#11Missouri@Ole Miss
63%
37%
24
10
✓
MIZ −5.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
31%
70%
0
34
✓
ISU −7.6
–
–
Final
#3Baylor@#7Oklahoma State
62%
38%
17
49
✗
BAY −5.2
–
–
Final
#19USC@Colorado
92%
8.2%
47
29
✓
USC −22.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Boise State@San Diego StateUpset
76%
24%
31
34
✗
BOIS −11.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
47%
53%
69
27
✗
ORST −0.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 8 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama
39%
61%
14
36
✓
USA −3.8
–
–
Final
#9Arizona State@#18UCLA
54%
46%
38
33
✓
ASU −2.0
–
–
Final
SMU@USF
61%
39%
16
6
✓
SMU −4.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#16Georgia
5.9%
94%
17
59
✓
UGA −24.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Temple
26%
74%
28
21
✗
TEM −10.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Texas State
56%
44%
38
7
✓
WKU −2.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana Tech
45%
55%
24
14
✗
LT −1.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
54%
46%
14
10
✓
VAN −2.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 23 · 2:00 PM ET Georgia Southern at Florida Florida −15.6 84%
Sat, Nov 23 · 1:30 PM ET Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −40.2 99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM ET Old Dominion at North Carolina North Carolina −26.5 95%
Sat, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM ET The Citadel at #12 Clemson Clemson −54.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 2:00 PM ET Chattanooga at #2 Alabama Alabama −64.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 1:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at #14 South Carolina South Carolina −28.3 96%