The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Virginia Tech17% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upWashington State over Arizona17% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upKansas over West Virginia33% chance · won 31-19

Upsets

Tue, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
32%
68%
0
49
✓
BGSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Toledo
39%
61%
41
51
✓
TOL −4.1
–
–

Wed, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
12%
88%
6
24
✓
KENT −18.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
27
48
✓
NIU −3.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#14Clemson
27%
73%
31
55
✓
CLEM −9.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tulsa
75%
25%
45
34
✓
MRSH −11.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington@#19UCLA
35%
65%
31
41
✓
UCLA −5.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Troy@Ole Miss
10%
90%
21
51
✓
MISS −20.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
50%
50%
52
17
✗
CIN −0.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#23Oklahoma
10.0%
90%
10
48
✓
OU −20.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Penn State
7.7%
92%
21
45
✓
PSU −22.5
–
–
Final
#22UCF@Temple
90%
10%
39
36
✓
UCF −20.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@#11Wisconsin
12%
88%
3
51
✓
WIS −18.5
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@Illinois
93%
6.8%
60
35
✓
OSU −24.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
67%
33%
19
31
✗
WVU −7.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
50%
50%
27
22
✓
CMU −0.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
18%
82%
6
22
✓
VAN −14.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
36%
64%
21
38
✓
BC −5.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Pittsburgh
46%
54%
34
27
✗
PITT −1.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Virginia TechUpset
17%
83%
27
24
✗
VT −14.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Southern Miss
84%
16%
41
7
✓
FAU −16.2
–
–
Final
Akron@UMass
71%
29%
14
13
✓
AKR −9.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@ArizonaUpset
17%
83%
24
17
✗
ARIZ −14.6
–
–
Final
UAB@East Carolina
4.3%
96%
14
63
✓
ECU −27.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia State
95%
5.0%
35
21
✓
UL −26.8
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
UConn@SMU
21%
79%
21
38
✓
SMU −12.6
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@#20Auburn
47%
53%
38
43
✓
AUB −0.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#2Florida State
2.6%
97%
3
59
✓
FSU −30.9
–
–
Final
Michigan@Northwestern
54%
46%
27
19
✓
MICH −2.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Duke
53%
47%
30
48
✗
MIA −1.6
–
–
Final
#24Michigan State@Nebraska
55%
45%
41
28
✓
MSU −2.5
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma State@#25Texas
58%
42%
38
13
✓
OKST −3.6
–
–
Final
TCU@#12Kansas State
12%
88%
31
33
✓
KSU −18.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Navy
23%
77%
14
42
✓
NAVY −11.5
–
–
Final
Utah@#4Oregon
7.5%
92%
21
44
✓
ORE −22.7
–
–
Final
California@Colorado
42%
58%
24
41
✓
COLO −2.6
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Texas Techvs#3Baylor
9.9%
90%
34
63
✓
BAY −20.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
23%
77%
21
38
✓
ARST −11.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Mississippi State
91%
8.9%
20
7
✓
ALA −21.9
–
–
Final
#7Stanford@#21USC
57%
43%
17
20
✗
STAN −3.2
–
–
Final
FIU@UTEP
24%
76%
10
33
✓
UTEP −10.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#9Arizona State
18%
82%
17
30
✓
ASU −14.4
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@Boise State
8.5%
92%
7
48
✓
BOIS −21.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
64%
36%
28
21
✓
SDSU −6.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
63%
37%
16
38
✗
SJSU −5.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Memphis@USF
56%
44%
23
10
✓
MEM −3.1
–
–
Final
Houston@#18Louisville
28%
72%
13
20
✓
LOU −8.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
59%
41%
66
42
✓
CSU −4.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Rice
18%
82%
14
52
✓
RICE −14.2
–
–
Final
Florida@#15South Carolina
27%
73%
14
19
✓
SC −9.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 16 · 3:00 PM ET Idaho State at #17 BYU BYU −62.9 >99%