The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 19 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 71

Wilder than 71% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 6.6 expected

  • Biggest shockAir Force over Ohio State19% chance · won 23-11
  • Runner-upColorado State over Oregon29% chance · won 32-31
  • Runner-upLouisville over Alabama32% chance · won 34-7

Upsets

Sat, Dec 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsSan Jose State
31%
69%
24
48
✓
SJSU −7.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana TechvsMaryland
51%
49%
34
34
✓
LT −0.8
–
–

Tue, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizonavs#25Syracuse
35%
65%
0
28
✓
SYR −5.6
–
–

Thu, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21Ohio StatevsAir ForceUpset
82%
18%
11
23
✗
OSU −14.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#16Penn Statevs#3Florida State
32%
68%
17
24
✓
FSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Southern MissvsNC State
50%
50%
27
31
✓
USM −0.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
IndianavsAuburn
41%
59%
23
27
✓
AUB −3.2
–
–
Final
#24OregonvsColorado StateUpset
71%
29%
31
32
✗
ORE −9.3
–
–
Final
#11BYUvs#17Texas A&M
53%
47%
14
65
✗
BYU −1.6
–
–

Mon, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
WyomingvsCalifornia
33%
67%
15
17
✓
CAL −6.4
–
–
Final
#18USCvs#22Michigan State
56%
44%
16
17
✗
USC −2.9
–
–

Tue, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 8 games

Final
Illinoisvs#14Clemson
33%
67%
0
30
✓
CLEM −6.4
–
–
Final
#8Notre Damevs#4Colorado
42%
58%
9
10
✓
COLO −2.9
–
–
Final
#5Nebraskavs#19Georgia Tech
66%
34%
21
45
✗
NEB −7.2
–
–
Final
#20AlabamavsLouisvilleUpset
68%
32%
7
34
✗
ALA −8.1
–
–
Final
#9Texasvs#1Miami (FL)
23%
77%
3
46
✓
MIA −11.2
–
–
Final
Ole Missvs#7Michigan
17%
83%
3
35
✓
MICH −14.8
–
–
Final
#15Virginiavs#10Tennessee
46%
54%
22
23
✓
TENN −1.2
–
–
Final
#23Iowavs#2Washington
21%
79%
34
46
✓
WASH −12.5
–
–