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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Virginia15% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upBall State over Central Michigan18% chance · won 13-3
  • Runner-upColorado over Nebraska23% chance · won 27-12

Upsets

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
#24Alabama@Mississippi State
62%
38%
22
0
✓
ALA −5.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
14%
86%
9
34
✓
ASU −17.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
43%
57%
31
35
✓
ARMY −2.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central MichiganUpset
18%
82%
13
3
✗
CMU −14.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
67%
33%
20
16
✓
BGSU −7.5
–
–
Final
#12BYU@Air Force
78%
22%
54
7
✓
BYU −12.5
–
–
Final
#15USC@California
66%
34%
31
31
✓
USC −7.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#11Clemson
10%
90%
3
20
✓
CLEM −19.9
–
–
Final
#10Colorado@#2NebraskaUpset
22%
78%
27
12
✗
NEB −11.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
45%
55%
8
17
✓
CSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
33%
67%
20
57
✓
DUKE −6.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
38%
62%
24
17
✗
MEM −4.4
–
–
Final
#18Auburn@#20Florida
40%
60%
7
48
✓
FLA −3.4
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@South Carolina
75%
25%
41
10
✓
FSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
75%
25%
45
18
✓
FRES −11.2
–
–
Final
#25Georgia Tech@#3VirginiaUpset
15%
85%
41
38
✗
UVA −16.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
19%
81%
16
43
✓
HAW −13.3
–
–
Final
TCU@#8Houston
9.2%
91%
35
56
✓
HOU −20.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@#22IllinoisUpset
34%
66%
54
28
✗
ILL −6.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
33%
67%
31
30
✗
OKST −6.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
58%
42%
14
28
✗
ISU −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
91%
9.0%
41
16
✓
LOU −21.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#1Miami (FL)
2.6%
97%
0
45
✓
MIA −30.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
37%
63%
14
34
✓
M-OH −4.8
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@Purdue
94%
6.5%
38
13
✓
MICH −24.7
–
–
Final
#23Indiana@#19Michigan State
33%
67%
20
45
✓
MSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
59%
41%
21
3
✓
MINN −4.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@LSU
40%
60%
19
10
✗
LSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
55%
45%
31
28
✓
NIU −2.6
–
–
Final
Navy@#9Notre Dame
1.0%
99%
31
52
✓
ND −37.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Ohio State
4.6%
95%
7
48
✓
OSU −26.6
–
–
Final
#13Oklahoma@Missouri
78%
22%
55
10
✓
OU −12.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#17Oregon
15%
85%
24
28
✓
ORE −16.2
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@West Virginia
73%
27%
31
19
✓
PSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Rice@Arkansas
38%
62%
19
11
✗
ARK −4.5
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
18%
82%
14
66
✓
SDSU −14.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Cal State Fullerton
94%
5.9%
44
6
✓
SJSU −25.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana
65%
35%
14
13
✓
USM −6.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
46%
54%
13
31
✓
STAN −1.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
69%
31%
35
6
✓
SYR −8.2
–
–
Final
Temple@#7Tennessee
3.4%
97%
20
41
✓
TENN −29.0
–
–
Final
#21Texas@Texas Tech
68%
32%
41
22
✓
TEX −7.7
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@SMU
95%
5.4%
38
17
✓
TA&M −26.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
43%
57%
37
9
✗
WMU −2.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
9.3%
91%
10
55
✓
USU −20.8
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia Tech
49%
51%
16
20
✓
VT −0.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@#4Washington
13%
87%
10
54
✓
WASH −17.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Nov 2 · TBD Arkansas State at North Texas North Texas −7.3 69%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana Tech −14.2 81%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Portland State at Pacific Pacific −7.9 70%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Ohio at Youngstown State Youngstown State −7.2 68%