The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over Boise State16% chance · won 21-20
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Akron17% chance · won 28-23
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Arizona19% chance · won 30-25

Upsets

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Alabama
11%
89%
28
59
✓
ALA −20.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#21Arkansas
21%
79%
20
31
✓
ARK −13.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
44%
56%
6
16
✓
BALL −2.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
32%
68%
21
15
✗
TTU −7.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Navy
54%
46%
28
17
✓
BC −1.6
–
–
Final
California@#18ArizonaUpset
19%
81%
30
25
✗
ARIZ −14.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
11%
89%
7
31
✓
CMU −20.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kent State
33%
67%
27
24
✗
KENT −7.6
–
–
Final
Duke@#11Clemson
8.5%
92%
7
26
✓
CLEM −22.9
–
–
Final
#14Washington@#13Colorado
40%
60%
14
20
✓
COLO −4.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#19Florida
16%
84%
21
34
✓
FLA −16.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#5Florida State
9.7%
90%
28
39
✓
FSU −21.6
–
–
Final
#22Fresno State@Cal State Fullerton
93%
7.0%
38
3
✓
FRES −24.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Georgia
36%
64%
15
19
✓
UGA −5.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia Tech
50%
50%
6
27
✗
SC −0.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#6Houston
5.6%
94%
22
24
✓
HOU −26.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#16Indiana
5.7%
94%
6
37
✓
IU −26.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Iowa State
44%
56%
20
34
✓
ISU −2.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Kansas State
52%
48%
6
38
✗
UNM −0.9
–
–
Final
#7Texas A&M@LSUUpset
72%
28%
8
17
✗
TA&M −9.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
28%
72%
10
24
✓
LT −9.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulsa
46%
54%
22
10
✗
TLSA −1.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@#1Miami (FL)
4.7%
95%
21
48
✓
MIA −27.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@#10Michigan
19%
81%
17
45
✓
MICH −14.6
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@Rutgers
79%
21%
34
10
✓
MSU −13.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
28%
72%
21
31
✓
MISS −9.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Missouri
72%
28%
9
30
✗
ASU −9.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#3Nebraska
0.5%
>99%
7
31
✓
NEB −43.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Pacific
79%
21%
37
28
✓
UNLV −13.1
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
58%
42%
12
9
✓
NCSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Northwestern
53%
47%
7
24
✗
NIU −1.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@#8Notre Dame
7.4%
93%
11
37
✓
ND −24.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#4Oklahoma
2.3%
98%
17
31
✓
OU −33.0
–
–
Final
#12BYU@OregonUpset
60%
40%
16
32
✗
BYU −4.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
59%
41%
18
48
✗
AF −3.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
39%
61%
29
23
✗
STAN −4.6
–
–
Final
#17USC@#24Ohio State
49%
51%
35
26
✗
OSU −0.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
48%
52%
13
25
✓
USM −1.0
–
–
Final
#15Auburn@#9Tennessee
34%
66%
26
26
✗
TENN −6.8
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
55%
45%
42
21
✓
TCU −1.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
69%
31%
27
20
✓
TOL −8.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington State
31%
69%
30
20
✗
WSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
33%
67%
14
52
✓
WAKE −7.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
36%
64%
38
24
✗
PITT −6.0
–
–
Final
#25Wyoming@Utah
74%
26%
28
10
✓
WYO −10.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Arkansas State at Southern Illinois Arkansas State −25.6 94%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Boise State at Long Beach State Boise State −16.2 84%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Sam Houston at UTEP UTEP −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD William & Mary at #2 Virginia Virginia −50.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Akron at Youngstown State Akron −15.5 83%