The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 29

Wilder than 29% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Virginia6.4% chance · won 35-30
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Iowa State29% chance · won 25-17
  • Runner-upPenn State over Notre Dame32% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Sat, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Air Force@UTEP
71%
29%
14
13
✓
AF −9.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#20Alabama
0.8%
99%
7
45
✓
ALA −38.8
–
–
Final
Army@Vanderbilt
41%
59%
42
38
✗
VAN −3.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Auburn
17%
83%
10
33
✓
AUB −14.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
7.7%
92%
6
23
✓
BALL −22.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Rice
58%
42%
17
16
✓
BAY −3.6
–
–
Final
#6BYU@Utah
96%
4.1%
45
22
✓
BYU −28.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#12Clemson
12%
88%
15
24
✓
CLEM −18.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#8Colorado
2.8%
97%
3
64
✓
COLO −30.2
–
–
Final
#14Florida@Kentucky
86%
14%
47
15
✓
FLA −17.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@#4Florida State
3.6%
96%
3
35
✓
FSU −28.4
–
–
Final
#24Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
85%
15%
42
7
✓
GT −17.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
40%
60%
17
38
✓
HAW −3.5
–
–
Final
#25Illinois@Indiana
46%
54%
24
10
✗
IU −1.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#21Iowa
6.1%
94%
9
38
✓
IOWA −24.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
58%
42%
24
25
✗
EMU −3.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Long Beach State
54%
46%
20
29
✗
UNLV −1.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Louisiana
49%
51%
20
24
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Louisiana Tech
31%
68%
30
31
✓
LT −7.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#5VirginiaUpset
6.4%
94%
35
30
✗
UVA −23.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#1Miami (FL)
0.7%
99%
12
42
✓
MIA −38.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#7Michigan
5.2%
95%
18
35
✓
MICH −25.7
–
–
Final
#18Michigan State@Northwestern
95%
5.3%
29
22
✓
MSU −26.2
–
–
Final
LSU@Mississippi State
44%
56%
22
34
✓
MSST −2.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
48%
52%
31
21
✗
KU −0.4
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@New Mexico State
48%
52%
9
43
✓
NMSU −0.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
51%
49%
24
22
✓
UNC −0.7
–
–
Final
#23Ohio State@Wisconsin
89%
11%
35
10
✓
OSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
29%
71%
25
17
✗
ISU −8.1
–
–
Final
#22Oregon@Oregon State
94%
6.1%
6
3
✓
ORE −25.1
–
–
Final
#16Penn State@#9Notre Dame
32%
68%
24
21
✗
ND −7.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
74%
26%
40
34
✓
SDSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
30%
70%
7
42
✓
SJSU −7.9
–
–
Final
#17USC@UCLA
66%
34%
45
42
✓
USC −7.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
38%
62%
27
25
✗
CAL −4.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West Virginia
62%
38%
31
7
✓
SYR −5.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Temple
22%
78%
22
29
✓
TEM −11.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#10Tennessee
13%
87%
13
22
✓
TENN −17.7
–
–
Final
#15Texas@TCU
79%
21%
38
10
✓
TEX −13.3
–
–
Final
#19Texas A&M@Arkansas
81%
19%
20
16
✓
TA&M −14.7
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas Tech
11%
89%
7
62
✓
TTU −19.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Toledo
17%
83%
28
43
✓
TOL −15.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Utah State
15%
85%
45
51
✓
USU −15.9
–
–
Final
#3Washington@Washington State
86%
14%
55
10
✓
WASH −18.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
30%
70%
17
31
✓
WMU −7.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Eastern Washington at #13 Houston Houston −44.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Delaware at Navy Delaware −4.3 59%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Montana State at Tulsa Tulsa −42.0 >99%