The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 1

Wilder than 1% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Michigan State35% chance · won 23-23
  • Runner-upAkron over Central Michigan36% chance · won 14-14
  • Runner-upIllinois over Colorado38% chance · won 23-22

Upsets

Thu, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#4Houston@Texas Tech
74%
26%
51
35
✓
HOU −10.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
#18Arizona@New Mexico
75%
25%
25
10
✓
ARIZ −11.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Arizona State
33%
67%
20
31
✓
ASU −7.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
23%
77%
3
28
✓
ARK −12.2
–
–
Final
#15Auburn@Ole Miss
67%
33%
24
10
✓
AUB −7.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#9BYU
25%
75%
36
50
✓
BYU −11.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
36%
64%
14
14
✗
CMU −6.1
–
–
Final
#13Clemson@Maryland
62%
38%
18
17
✓
CLEM −4.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
28%
72%
18
21
✓
EMU −9.6
–
–
Final
#12Florida@#21Alabama
53%
47%
17
13
✓
FLA −1.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah
63%
37%
31
7
✓
FRES −5.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Georgia
37%
63%
17
18
✓
UGA −5.4
–
–
Final
#7Colorado@IllinoisUpset
62%
38%
22
23
✗
COLO −5.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
52%
48%
45
24
✓
IU −0.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Iowa
11%
89%
10
63
✓
IOWA −20.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Kansas State
30%
70%
7
52
✓
KSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#23LSU
4.3%
96%
7
35
✓
LSU −28.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Louisville
17%
84%
16
28
✓
LOU −16.2
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@California
90%
9.7%
52
24
✓
MIA −21.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#24Michigan State
35%
65%
23
23
✗
MSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Minnesota
47%
53%
16
20
✓
MINN −1.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Mississippi State
18%
82%
13
27
✓
MSST −15.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Missouri
28%
72%
10
45
✓
MIZ −9.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Oregon State
42%
58%
45
20
✗
ORST −3.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
25%
75%
15
20
✓
NCSU −11.3
–
–
Final
#20Michigan@#14Notre Dame
37%
63%
24
28
✓
ND −5.5
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Boston College
68%
32%
31
10
✓
OSU −7.7
–
–
Final
#16Pittsburgh@#11Oklahoma
39%
61%
10
52
✓
OU −4.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Diego State
3.7%
96%
20
38
✓
SDSU −29.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Pacific
96%
4.1%
28
14
✓
SJSU −28.7
–
–
Final
Penn State@#5USC
21%
79%
14
19
✓
USC −13.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@#8Tennessee
4.9%
95%
0
56
✓
TENN −27.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#10Texas A&M
20%
80%
14
63
✓
TA&M −13.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
40%
60%
14
23
✓
TOL −4.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
49%
51%
7
43
✓
TULN −0.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLA
49%
51%
31
32
✓
UCLA −0.4
–
–
Final
Navy@#6Virginia
5.0%
95%
14
56
✓
UVA −27.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@East Carolina
50%
50%
24
23
✗
ECU −0.2
–
–
Final
#19Washington@Purdue
74%
26%
20
14
✓
WASH −10.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Western Michigan
58%
42%
21
27
✗
LT −3.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Wisconsin
52%
48%
7
24
✗
BALL −0.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#22Wyoming
23%
77%
27
34
✓
WYO −12.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD The Citadel at #25 Air Force Air Force −40.7 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Holy Cross at Army Army −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Georgia Southern at #2 Florida State Florida State −38.5 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD UConn at North Carolina North Carolina −9.2 71%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Northern Iowa at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Idaho at #17 Oregon Oregon −44.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Colgate at Rutgers Rutgers −35.0 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Austin Peay at Temple Temple −16.7 84%