The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 41

Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.4 expected

  • Biggest shockOregon State over Arizona7.6% chance · won 35-21
  • Runner-upUTEP over Hawaii19% chance · won 12-10
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Michigan20% chance · won 28-27

Upsets

Sat, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
3.0%
97%
6
56
✓
AUB −29.8
–
–
Final
18%
82%
0
31
✓
BALL −14.1
–
–
Final
14%
86%
17
52
✓
BAY −16.9
–
–
Final
26%
74%
20
41
✓
BC −9.7
–
–
Final
12%
88%
9
52
✓
BYU −18.4
–
–
Final
49%
51%
31
24
✗
PK
–
–
Final
27%
73%
13
20
✓
CMU −9.2
–
–
Final
11%
89%
12
28
✓
COLO −19.2
–
–
Final
52%
48%
19
21
✗
CLEM −1.4
–
–
Final
33%
67%
31
36
✓
HOU −6.4
–
–
Final
11%
89%
0
34
✓
ILL −19.5
–
–
Final
9.9%
90%
10
30
✓
IOWA −20.2
–
–
Final
37%
63%
17
23
✓
KSU −4.8
–
–
Final
42%
58%
15
17
✓
UK −2.9
–
–
Final
74%
26%
35
21
✓
LT −10.9
–
–
Final
22%
78%
17
19
✓
LOU −11.9
–
–
Final
31%
70%
13
41
✓
MD −7.6
–
–
Final
0.7%
99%
0
34
✓
MIA −39.3
–
–
Final
39%
61%
40
18
✗
OHIO −3.8
–
–
Final
20%
80%
28
27
✗
MICH −13.1
–
–
Final
24%
76%
25
35
✓
MINN −11.1
–
–
Final
37%
63%
28
12
✗
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
66%
34%
13
17
✗
AKR −6.9
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
21
69
✓
NEB −25.6
–
–
Final
71%
29%
24
20
✓
UNLV −9.5
–
–
Final
30%
70%
0
35
✓
NIU −8.0
–
–
Final
8.9%
91%
27
57
✓
ND −21.2
–
–
Final
69%
31%
27
27
✓
IU −8.4
–
–
Final
92%
7.6%
21
35
✗
ARIZ −23.3
–
–
Final
Pacific@Cal State FullertonUpset
25%
75%
67
37
✗
Cal State Fullerton −10.5
–
–
Final
30%
70%
21
27
✓
PSU −7.7
–
–
Final
17%
83%
21
45
✓
PITT −14.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Jose State
1.7%
98%
29
46
✓
SJSU −33.7
–
–
Final
29%
71%
7
37
✓
SC −8.5
–
–
Final
58%
42%
37
22
✓
USC −3.7
–
–
Final
65%
35%
20
14
✓
USM −6.8
–
–
Final
35%
65%
3
45
✓
TENN −5.5
–
–
Final
66%
34%
13
14
✗
OU −6.8
–
–
Final
28%
72%
28
38
✓
TCU −9.0
–
–
Final
36%
64%
49
44
✗
ARK −5.3
–
–
Final
81%
19%
10
12
✗
HAW −14.2
–
–
Final
20%
80%
13
19
✓
TOL −12.7
–
–
Final
33%
67%
31
45
✓
UCLA −6.6
–
–
Final
88%
12%
24
24
✓
FRES −19.0
–
–
Final
16%
84%
0
31
✓
UVA −15.7
–
–
Final
31%
70%
17
38
✓
WASH −7.6
–
–
Final
3.4%
97%
20
28
✓
WVU −28.9
–
–
Final
12%
88%
22
25
✓
WYO −17.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Western Carolina at Duke Duke −37.9 99%