The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 28

Wilder than 28% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over Notre Dame14% chance · won 36-31
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Fresno State18% chance · won 73-18
  • Runner-upTCU over Arkansas19% chance · won 54-26

Upsets

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Navy@Air Force
18%
82%
7
24
✓
AF −15.3
–
–
Final
#22Alabama@Louisiana
70%
30%
25
6
✓
ALA −8.7
–
–
Final
#24Arizona@UCLA
54%
46%
28
21
✓
ARIZ −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#15Auburn
21%
79%
14
16
✓
AUB −13.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
36%
64%
14
19
✓
BC −6.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
47%
53%
34
35
✓
CAL −1.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
83%
17%
42
0
✓
CMU −15.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@#10Clemson
20%
80%
3
34
✓
CLEM −14.0
–
–
Final
#12Colorado@Missouri
79%
21%
33
31
✓
COLO −13.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
28%
72%
13
28
✓
CSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
63%
37%
17
16
✓
DUKE −5.3
–
–
Final
LSU@#20Florida
34%
66%
8
34
✓
FLA −6.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Maryland
50%
50%
31
3
✗
MD −0.1
–
–
Final
#9Houston@Baylor
75%
25%
31
15
✓
HOU −11.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Ohio State
43%
57%
31
20
✗
OSU −3.0
–
–
Final
#13Indiana@Northwestern
87%
13%
42
0
✓
IU −18.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#18Michigan StateUpset
24%
76%
12
7
✗
MSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
56%
44%
34
34
✓
ISU −2.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Long Beach State
42%
58%
27
31
✓
Long Beach State −3.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisville
16%
84%
14
38
✓
LOU −16.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
38%
62%
14
21
✓
MEM −5.2
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@#1Miami (FL)
20%
80%
22
31
✓
MIA −13.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
59%
41%
10
24
✗
BALL −3.6
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Wisconsin
91%
9.1%
41
3
✓
MICH −22.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
35%
65%
19
7
✗
PUR −6.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Ole Miss
25%
75%
29
35
✓
MISS −11.4
–
–
Final
#6Nebraska@Kansas State
87%
13%
45
8
✓
NEB −18.6
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@UNLV
26%
74%
10
29
✓
UNLV −10.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
28%
72%
28
48
✓
UNM −10.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
34%
66%
31
24
✗
WAKE −7.1
–
–
Final
#21Fresno State@Northern IllinoisUpset
82%
18%
18
73
✗
FRES −15.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
51%
49%
10
10
✓
BGSU −0.4
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
91%
9.2%
31
17
✓
OU −22.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@#19Oregon
3.0%
97%
7
52
✓
ORE −31.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
15%
85%
10
48
✓
PSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@#17USC
22%
78%
17
30
✓
USC −12.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
45%
55%
16
7
✗
ECU −2.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@#3Notre DameUpset
14%
86%
36
31
✗
ND −18.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Vanderbilt
77%
23%
49
14
✓
SYR −12.4
–
–
Final
Texas@Rice
52%
48%
26
10
✓
TEX −0.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#8Texas A&M
13%
87%
24
28
✓
TA&M −18.7
–
–
Final
TCU@#23ArkansasUpset
19%
81%
54
26
✗
ARK −14.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
25%
75%
23
37
✓
TOL −11.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Virginia Tech
49%
51%
21
26
✓
VT −0.6
–
–
Final
#14Washington@Arizona State
69%
31%
42
14
✓
WASH −7.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
41%
59%
24
20
✗
AKR −4.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#25Wyoming
21%
79%
51
52
✓
WYO −13.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD Northwestern State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −21.2 90%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD Maine at Hawaii Hawaii −29.4 96%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD Appalachian State at NC State NC State −13.6 79%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD SMU at North Texas North Texas −8.8 70%