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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockPacific over Sacramento State15% chance · won 41-33
  • Runner-upTulane over Rice23% chance · won 21-10
  • Runner-upWyoming over Washington State24% chance · won 34-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Stanford@#4Colorado
8.9%
91%
17
21
✓
COLO −20.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
#24Hawaii@Air ForceUpset
47%
53%
3
27
✓
AF −0.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
55%
45%
38
10
✓
AKR −2.4
–
–
Final
#25Illinois@ArizonaUpset
47%
53%
16
28
✓
ARIZ −0.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Arizona State
59%
41%
13
34
✗
BAY −4.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@#18Auburn
2.9%
97%
17
38
✓
AUB −29.3
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#13BYU
68%
32%
21
28
✗
MIA −7.9
–
–
Final
California@Wisconsin
56%
44%
28
12
✓
CAL −2.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Central Michigan
14%
86%
0
34
✓
CMU −16.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
72%
28%
27
24
✓
DUKE −9.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
52%
48%
24
27
✗
WMU −1.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Florida
37%
63%
7
50
✓
FLA −4.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#9Florida State
21%
79%
24
45
✓
FSU −11.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#15Fresno State
16%
84%
17
24
✓
FRES −15.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
57%
43%
13
21
✗
NCSU −3.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@#8Houston
2.7%
97%
9
37
✓
HOU −29.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Kansas
62%
38%
12
38
✗
ORST −5.2
–
–
Final
Georgia@LSU
42%
58%
13
18
✓
LSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#17West VirginiaUpset
34%
66%
14
10
✗
WVU −6.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
31%
69%
21
23
✓
MISS −7.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#3Nebraska
4.9%
95%
14
60
✓
NEB −25.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Ohio State
47%
53%
10
17
✓
OSU −0.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@UCLA
52%
48%
34
14
✓
OU −1.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oregon
26%
74%
21
42
✓
ORE −9.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@#14Pittsburgh
16%
84%
6
29
✓
PITT −14.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Rutgers
59%
41%
8
24
✗
UK −4.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@South Carolina
23%
77%
5
27
✓
SC −11.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@SMU
60%
40%
7
44
✗
VAN −4.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#19AlabamaUpset
27%
73%
27
24
✗
ALA −8.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Syracuse
13%
87%
9
19
✓
SYR −17.3
–
–
Final
#10Tennessee@Mississippi State
75%
25%
40
7
✓
TENN −10.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Penn State
31%
69%
17
13
✗
PSU −7.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Missouri
46%
54%
20
19
✗
MIZ −1.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
18%
82%
24
27
✓
UTEP −13.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Miami (OH)
75%
25%
20
14
✓
TOL −10.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@RiceUpset
23%
77%
21
10
✗
RICE −10.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Minnesota
43%
57%
35
29
✗
MINN −2.2
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Utah State
9.4%
91%
13
27
✓
USU −20.0
–
–
Final
#5Clemson@#7Virginia
49%
51%
7
20
✓
CLEM −0.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Virginia Tech
21%
79%
7
21
✓
VT −11.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#23Washington
27%
73%
17
20
✓
WASH −9.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#11Washington StateUpset
24%
76%
34
13
✗
WSU −10.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State Arkansas State −16.5 86%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Ball State at Illinois State Ball State −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Montana State at Colorado State Colorado State −48.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Western Illinois at Kansas State Kansas State −20.7 91%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Nicholls at #20 Louisiana Louisiana −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Louisiana Tech at McNeese Louisiana Tech −19.5 89%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Murray State at Louisville Louisville −27.9 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Richmond at Navy Navy −18.9 89%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Sacramento State at Pacific Sacramento State −16.8 86%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Missouri State at Tulsa Tulsa −19.3 90%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Appalachian State −4.3 60%