The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 33 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 69

Wilder than 69% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 8.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMontana over Oregon State5.1% chance · won 22-15
  • Runner-upMissouri State over UNLV24% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upMemphis over Arkansas State28% chance · won 24-24

Fri, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
24%
76%
16
34
✓
USC −10.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 24 games

Final
28%
72%
24
24
✗
ARST −8.6
–
–
Final
71%
29%
30
10
✓
BYU −9.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#7Clemson
1.0%
99%
0
59
✓
CLEM −36.2
–
–
Final
34%
66%
35
33
✗
AF −5.7
–
–
Final
40%
60%
17
27
✓
ECU −3.3
–
–
Final
29%
71%
10
41
✓
FRES −8.2
–
–
Final
32%
68%
17
20
✓
UK −6.7
–
–
Final
45%
55%
48
6
✗
TULN −1.2
–
–
Final
31%
69%
10
10
✗
LOU −7.1
–
–
Final
44%
56%
13
20
✓
MD −2.0
–
–
Final
24%
76%
0
13
✓
NEB −10.2
–
–
Final
65%
35%
29
12
✓
UNM −6.6
–
–
Final
34%
66%
0
34
✓
UNC −5.8
–
–
Final
42%
58%
3
10
✓
OKST −2.5
–
–
Final
13%
87%
3
35
✓
PITT −17.0
–
–
Final
42%
58%
17
33
✓
RICE −2.7
–
–
Final
44%
56%
10
21
✓
SC −1.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@Tennessee
3.6%
96%
7
55
✓
TENN −27.7
–
–
Final
45%
55%
28
13
✗
HAW −1.3
–
–
Final
51%
49%
19
0
✓
UTAH −0.9
–
–
Final
72%
28%
59
10
✓
UVA −9.4
–
–
Final
62%
38%
21
3
✓
WSU −5.0
–
–
Final
8.9%
91%
24
35
✓
WVU −20.5
–
–
Final
23%
77%
23
38
✓
WYO −11.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
46%
54%
34
20
✗
CIN −0.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Illinois State at Akron Akron −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Sonoma State at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −11.0 77%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Missouri State at UNLV UNLV −10.2 76%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Montana at Oregon State Oregon State −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Western Carolina at NC State NC State −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −22.3 93%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Delta State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −27.7 96%