The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 88

Wilder than 88% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUCLA over Washington5.3% chance · won 25-22
  • Runner-upTulane over Syracuse9.0% chance · won 26-24
  • Runner-upNavy over Toledo11% chance · won 14-10

Upsets

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
61%
39%
15
3
✓
AF −4.9
–
–
Final
17%
83%
3
24
✓
ALA −14.9
–
–
Final
29%
71%
51
26
✗
WSU −8.2
–
–
Final
59%
41%
20
13
✓
BALL −3.9
–
–
Final
25%
75%
3
34
✓
BAY −10.2
–
–
Final
79%
21%
45
14
✓
BYU −13.2
–
–
Final
64%
36%
3
28
✗
ORE −6.3
–
–
Final
87%
13%
52
7
✓
CMU −18.1
–
–
Final
2.7%
97%
22
41
✓
COLO −30.5
–
–
Final
17%
84%
13
31
✓
CSU −15.1
–
–
Final
38%
62%
20
24
✓
ECU −4.5
–
–
Final
10%
90%
7
38
✓
FLA −19.8
–
–
Final
0.2%
>99%
21
70
✓
FSU −47.5
–
–
Final
Pacific@Fresno State
4.1%
96%
17
48
✓
FRES −27.6
–
–
Final
17%
83%
3
6
✓
GT −14.7
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
7
20
✓
IU −25.5
–
–
Final
29%
72%
25
27
✓
ISU −8.6
–
–
Final
18%
82%
21
28
✓
UK −14.3
–
–
Final
58%
42%
17
16
✓
UL −3.7
–
–
Final
15%
85%
15
36
✓
LT −16.0
–
–
Final
17%
83%
10
17
✓
LOU −15.0
–
–
Final
17%
83%
10
31
✓
M-OH −14.9
–
–
Final
17%
84%
17
22
✓
MICH −15.1
–
–
Final
77%
23%
28
16
✓
MSU −12.2
–
–
Final
42%
58%
27
23
✗
MEM −2.6
–
–
Final
12%
88%
14
10
✗
TOL −18.8
–
–
Final
94%
6.1%
41
9
✓
NEB −25.1
–
–
Final
22%
78%
0
16
✓
NCSU −12.0
–
–
Final
36%
64%
34
29
✗
TENN −5.3
–
–
Final
32%
68%
27
26
✗
IOWA −6.8
–
–
Final
3.9%
96%
7
34
✓
OU −27.8
–
–
Final
11%
89%
10
24
✓
PSU −19.2
–
–
Final
46%
54%
33
13
✗
NU −1.2
–
–
Final
9.8%
90%
28
30
✓
RICE −20.3
–
–
Final
33%
67%
38
44
✓
SDSU −6.4
–
–
Final
98%
2.1%
56
20
✓
SJSU −33.0
–
–
Final
94%
5.9%
56
7
✓
USC −25.3
–
–
Final
27%
73%
13
12
✗
AUB −9.4
–
–
Final
31%
69%
23
10
✗
ARIZ −7.4
–
–
Final
22%
78%
28
18
✗
PITT −11.6
–
–
Final
49%
51%
24
45
✓
TEX −0.1
–
–
Final
33%
67%
40
28
✗
TCU −6.4
–
–
Final
9.0%
91%
26
24
✗
SYR −21.1
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
25
22
✗
WASH −25.5
–
–
Final
35%
65%
29
27
✗
UNM −5.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Cal State Fullerton
74%
26%
45
17
✓
USU −10.8
–
–
Final
82%
18%
24
10
✓
UVA −15.3
–
–
Final
62%
38%
28
3
✓
WVU −5.6
–
–
Final
45%
55%
19
13
✗
BGSU −1.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Long Beach State Long Beach State −11.0 76%
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Southern Illinois at South Carolina South Carolina −38.2 99%