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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 19

Wilder than 19% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockVanderbilt over LSU14% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Arkansas16% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Eastern Michigan28% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
Cal State Fullerton@Akron
15%
85%
17
48
✓
AKR −17.2
–
–
Final
Oregon@#18Arizona
33%
67%
17
22
✓
ARIZ −7.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#11BYU
8.1%
92%
34
62
✓
BYU −23.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
27%
73%
0
17
✓
CMU −10.3
–
–
Final
#12Colorado@Texas
66%
34%
29
22
✓
COLO −6.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
17%
83%
20
38
✓
CSU −16.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Louisiana
46%
54%
20
10
✗
UL −1.6
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Tulane
87%
13%
31
13
✓
FSU −18.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#19Fresno State
1.3%
99%
3
42
✓
FRES −36.8
–
–
Final
#24Alabama@GeorgiaUpset
50%
50%
16
17
✓
UGA −0.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah
55%
45%
19
7
✓
HAW −1.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Indiana
20%
80%
7
58
✓
IU −13.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
30%
70%
35
45
✓
IOWA −8.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
49%
51%
7
28
✓
Long Beach State −0.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
42%
58%
7
40
✓
LT −3.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@West Virginia
42%
58%
9
7
✗
WVU −3.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
36%
64%
12
13
✓
MD −6.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
53%
47%
16
12
✓
M-OH −1.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@#13Michigan
19%
81%
15
38
✓
MICH −14.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#14ArkansasUpset
16%
84%
21
17
✗
ARK −16.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Mississippi State
59%
41%
10
13
✗
USM −3.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#6Nebraska
7.8%
92%
0
56
✓
NEB −23.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@North Carolina
40%
60%
13
16
✓
UNC −4.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Northern Illinois
47%
53%
35
42
✓
NIU −1.4
–
–
Final
#7Notre Dame@#20Michigan State
61%
39%
20
19
✓
ND −4.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#4Oklahoma
5.6%
94%
10
52
✓
OU −26.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Penn State
19%
81%
0
28
✓
PSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
40%
60%
20
20
✗
PITT −4.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Rice
31%
69%
14
31
✓
RICE −8.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
65%
35%
47
13
✓
SJSU −6.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Virginia Tech
51%
49%
35
24
✓
SC −0.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
7.6%
92%
3
37
✓
STAN −23.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Wisconsin
40%
60%
24
18
✗
WIS −4.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@TCU
38%
62%
21
31
✓
TCU −5.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@New Mexico
62%
38%
34
32
✓
TTU −5.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
52%
48%
28
16
✓
TOL −0.8
–
–
Final
#25LSU@VanderbiltUpset
86%
14%
21
24
✗
LSU −17.9
–
–
Final
#8Virginia@Duke
79%
21%
59
0
✓
UVA −13.1
–
–
Final
#10USC@#21Washington
61%
39%
0
31
✗
USC −4.5
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
37%
63%
31
41
✓
WSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
16%
84%
10
37
✓
WMU −16.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
29%
71%
12
24
✓
WYO −9.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD VMI at Army Army −39.7 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Sam Houston at Baylor Baylor −21.2 90%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Appalachian State at #17 Clemson Clemson −18.9 87%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Furman at #16 Florida Florida −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Chattanooga at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −30.4 97%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Southern Illinois at #22 Illinois Illinois −40.0 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD UCF at Memphis Memphis −16.1 83%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Villanova at Navy Navy −15.2 82%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Ohio Ohio −12.3 77%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −28.5 96%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD North Texas at #5 Texas A&M Texas A&M −27.6 95%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Youngstown State Eastern Michigan −9.4 72%