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2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1990

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 99

Wilder than 99% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockThe Citadel over South Carolina0.3% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upIowa State over Oklahoma8.5% chance · won 33-31
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Georgia Tech12% chance · won 13-13

Upsets

Sat, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
#24Alabama@#4TennesseeUpset
19%
81%
9
6
✗
TENN −13.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#13USCUpset
20%
80%
35
26
✗
USC −13.2
–
–
Final
#6Florida State@#17Auburn
50%
50%
17
20
✓
FSU −0.4
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@Baylor
68%
32%
20
20
✓
TA&M −7.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
34%
66%
15
25
✓
BGSU −6.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@California
38%
62%
31
38
✓
CAL −4.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
28%
72%
12
13
✓
CMU −8.7
–
–
Final
#10Clemson@NC State
66%
34%
24
17
✓
CLEM −6.9
–
–
Final
#14Colorado@Kansas
86%
14%
41
10
✓
COLO −17.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
32%
68%
7
47
✓
CSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@East Carolina
8.3%
92%
32
56
✓
ECU −21.8
–
–
Final
Akron@#23Florida
10%
90%
0
59
✓
FLA −19.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
3.4%
97%
16
28
✓
FRES −29.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia
9.6%
90%
28
39
✓
UGA −20.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#18Georgia Tech
12%
88%
13
13
✗
GT −18.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Hawaii
2.8%
97%
21
45
✓
HAW −30.3
–
–
Final
#8Houston@SMU
96%
3.8%
44
17
✓
HOU −28.8
–
–
Final
#19Michigan State@#21Illinois
40%
60%
13
15
✓
ILL −3.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@#5MichiganUpset
16%
84%
24
23
✗
MICH −15.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#9OklahomaUpset
8.5%
92%
33
31
✗
OU −21.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
55%
45%
15
44
✗
OHIO −2.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulsa
51%
49%
25
13
✓
UL −0.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@LSU
22%
78%
20
30
✓
LSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Pittsburgh
40%
60%
27
20
✗
PITT −3.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
55%
45%
23
20
✓
MD −2.6
–
–
Final
#12Indiana@MinnesotaUpset
82%
18%
0
12
✗
IU −15.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
11%
89%
13
42
✓
MISS −19.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
43%
57%
38
17
✗
TULN −2.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Missouri
32%
68%
10
31
✓
MIZ −7.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Nebraska
1.2%
99%
3
31
✓
NEB −36.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
40%
60%
34
44
✓
NU −3.8
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#11Notre Dame
69%
31%
20
29
✗
MIA −8.3
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Purdue
72%
28%
42
2
✓
OSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#22Oregon
15%
85%
7
27
✓
ORE −16.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Pacific
39%
61%
24
62
✓
Pacific −3.9
–
–
Final
#20Penn State@Boston College
77%
23%
40
21
✓
PSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Rice
55%
45%
21
42
✗
TTU −2.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
4.4%
96%
27
34
✓
SJSU −27.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
23%
77%
7
23
✓
USM −11.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
8.7%
91%
0
42
✓
SYR −21.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Temple
63%
37%
28
31
✗
VT −5.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Texas
25%
75%
17
49
✓
TEX −10.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
28%
72%
23
37
✓
UTAH −8.9
–
–
Final
#3Virginia@Wake Forest
91%
8.7%
49
14
✓
UVA −22.2
–
–
Final
#7Washington@Stanford
67%
33%
52
16
✓
WASH −7.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
77%
23%
55
24
✓
WSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
23%
77%
13
14
✓
WMU −11.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −21.2 91%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD The Citadel at #25 South Carolina South Carolina −44.7 >99%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Nevada at UNLV UNLV −0.8 53%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Murray State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −34.2 98%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Weber State at Wyoming Wyoming −42.2 >99%