The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 18 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 96

Wilder than 96% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 4.5 expected

  • Biggest shockPittsburgh over West Virginia3.7% chance · won 13-9
  • Runner-upFlorida Atlantic over Troy13% chance · won 38-32
  • Runner-upOregon State over Oregon18% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Thu, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Rutgers@Louisville
44%
56%
38
41
✓
LOU −1.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno State@New Mexico State
81%
19%
30
23
✓
FRES −14.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
28%
72%
10
35
✓
CMU −8.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UCF
34%
66%
25
44
✓
UCF −6.2
–
–
Final
Army@Navy
17%
83%
3
38
✓
NAVY −14.9
–
–
Final
#11Virginia Tech@#16Boston College
46%
54%
30
16
✗
BC −1.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@TroyUpset
13%
87%
38
32
✗
TROY −17.2
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
#25Tennessee@#2LSU
17%
83%
14
21
✓
LSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nevada
25%
75%
10
49
✓
NEV −10.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@#6USC
17%
83%
7
24
✓
USC −14.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#8OregonUpset
18%
82%
38
31
✗
ORE −14.2
–
–
Final
#18BYU@San Diego State
84%
16%
48
27
✓
BYU −16.1
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
California@StanfordUpset
78%
22%
13
20
✗
CAL −12.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#1West VirginiaUpset
3.7%
96%
13
9
✗
WVU −28.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@#15Arizona State
19%
81%
17
20
✓
ASU −13.3
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@#7Missouri
46%
54%
38
17
✗
MIZ −1.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington@#21Hawaii
22%
78%
28
35
✓
HAW −11.7
–
–

Sun, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Texas@FIU
53%
47%
19
38
✗
UNT −1.8
–
–