The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 97

Wilder than 97% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 16.1 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over USC2.9% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upNotre Dame over UCLA10% chance · won 20-6
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan State13% chance · won 48-41

Upsets

Wed, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Marshall@Memphis
31%
69%
21
24
✓
MEM −8.1
–
–

Thu, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16Kentucky@South CarolinaUpset
46%
54%
23
38
✓
SC −1.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Rice@Southern MissUpset
14%
86%
31
29
✗
USM −18.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Minnesota@Indiana
29%
71%
20
40
✓
IU −9.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#12Boston College
12%
88%
24
55
✓
BC −19.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Maryland
55%
45%
26
28
✗
GT −1.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan
5.4%
95%
22
33
✓
MICH −26.8
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@North Carolina
63%
37%
27
33
✗
MIA −5.5
–
–
Final
#6West Virginia@Syracuse
93%
7.2%
55
14
✓
WVU −24.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
49%
51%
26
31
✓
ILL −0.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball StateUpset
21%
79%
58
38
✗
BALL −13.5
–
–
Final
#14Kansas@#25Kansas State
45%
55%
30
24
✗
KSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan StateUpset
13%
87%
48
41
✗
MSU −18.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#18Auburn
18%
82%
7
35
✓
AUB −15.3
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
70%
30%
41
36
✓
WAKE −8.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Temple
54%
46%
15
16
✗
NIU −1.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
56%
44%
10
31
✗
OHIO −2.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Ole Miss
33%
67%
0
24
✓
MISS −7.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Wyoming
50%
50%
21
24
✗
WYO −0.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Mississippi State
29%
71%
13
30
✓
MSST −9.2
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Houston@Alabama
33%
67%
24
30
✓
ALA −7.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
28%
72%
20
13
✗
KENT −10.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Florida State
13%
87%
10
27
✓
FSU −19.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Penn State
26%
74%
7
27
✓
PSU −10.7
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#19Texas
66%
34%
28
21
✓
OU −6.5
–
–
Final
#15USF@Florida Atlantic
83%
17%
35
23
✓
USF −15.7
–
–
Final
#22Georgia@TennesseeUpset
48%
52%
14
35
✓
TENN −1.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Jose State
17%
83%
20
28
✓
SJSU −16.2
–
–
Final
#10Arizona State@Washington State
79%
21%
23
20
✓
ASU −13.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
44%
56%
49
41
✗
NEV −2.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
44%
56%
16
31
✓
ORST −2.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado StateUpset
23%
77%
24
20
✗
CSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#24ClemsonUpset
33%
67%
41
23
✗
CLEM −7.3
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Stanford@#4USCUpset
2.9%
97%
24
23
✗
USC −31.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@Baylor
58%
42%
43
23
✓
COLO −3.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana
34%
66%
29
38
✓
UL −6.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
27%
73%
17
20
✓
ARMY −10.4
–
–
Final
Troy@FIU
89%
11%
34
16
✓
TROY −19.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
62%
38%
13
30
✗
ARST −5.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#13Texas Tech
4.7%
95%
17
42
✓
TTU −27.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
36%
64%
39
38
✗
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Middle Tennessee
63%
37%
23
21
✓
UVA −5.3
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
51%
49%
38
52
✗
UCF −0.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas A&M
39%
61%
23
24
✓
TA&M −4.6
–
–
Final
#5Florida@#1LSU
27%
73%
24
28
✓
LSU −10.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
28%
72%
14
31
✓
AF −9.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
55%
45%
47
48
✗
TLSA −1.9
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Missouri
42%
58%
6
41
✓
MIZ −3.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah@LouisvilleUpset
22%
78%
44
35
✗
LOU −13.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Utah State@#9Hawaii
1.9%
98%
37
52
✓
HAW −34.6
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Notre Dame@#20UCLAUpset
10%
90%
20
6
✗
UCLA −21.1
–
–
Final
#11Cincinnati@#21Rutgers
47%
53%
28
23
✗
RUTG −1.3
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Purdue
67%
33%
23
7
✓
OSU −7.3
–
–

Mon, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@Boise State
8.6%
91%
0
58
✓
BOIS −22.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 6 · 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga vs #23 Arkansas Arkansas −47.8 >99%
Sat, Oct 6 · 7:07 PM ET Liberty at Toledo Toledo −3.3 58%