The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 21

Wilder than 21% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Kansas State8.9% chance · won 31-20
  • Runner-upNC State over Miami (FL)21% chance · won 19-16
  • Runner-upFlorida State over Boston College23% chance · won 27-17

Upsets

Thu, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
45%
55%
27
3
✗
GT −1.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Temple@Ohio
22%
78%
7
23
✓
OHIO −11.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
36%
64%
20
44
✓
BGSU −5.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Iowa@Northwestern
49%
51%
28
17
✗
IOWA −0.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
45%
55%
20
38
✓
IU −1.7
–
–
Final
#19Clemson@Duke
86%
14%
47
10
✓
CLEM −17.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#3Ohio State
12%
88%
17
38
✓
OSU −18.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@#20Penn State
31%
69%
19
26
✓
PSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
17%
83%
17
20
✓
PITT −14.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
50%
50%
16
17
✗
WAKE −0.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Miami (FL)Upset
21%
79%
19
16
✗
MIA −12.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#6Florida
12%
88%
22
49
✓
FLA −18.7
–
–
Final
#14Kansas State@Iowa StateUpset
91%
8.9%
20
31
✗
KSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#8Kansas
12%
88%
39
76
✓
KU −18.4
–
–
Final
Troy@#23Georgia
25%
75%
34
44
✓
UGA −10.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
64%
36%
56
40
✓
ECU −6.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@BYU
12%
88%
16
35
✓
BYU −18.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
45%
55%
46
44
✗
ND −1.5
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
San Jose State@Boise State
5.1%
95%
7
42
✓
BOIS −25.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
37%
63%
28
31
✓
M-OH −4.7
–
–
Final
#25Texas Tech@Baylor
84%
16%
38
7
✓
TTU −16.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
68%
32%
48
56
✗
UTEP −8.0
–
–
Final
FIU@Arkansas State
13%
87%
24
27
✓
ARST −17.8
–
–
Final
UCLA@Arizona
52%
48%
27
34
✗
UCLA −1.1
–
–
Final
#21Cincinnati@#12USF
34%
66%
38
33
✗
USF −5.9
–
–
Final
#15Michigan@Michigan State
57%
43%
28
24
✓
MICH −3.2
–
–
Final
#18Texas@Oklahoma State
47%
53%
38
35
✗
OKST −0.7
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
12%
88%
10
30
✓
AF −18.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@UCF
15%
85%
13
47
✓
UCF −16.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
51%
49%
13
16
✗
MD −0.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tennessee
3.2%
97%
7
59
✓
TENN −29.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Idaho
71%
29%
28
16
✓
LT −9.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
11%
89%
27
38
✓
FRES −19.6
–
–
Final
#2LSU@Alabama
72%
28%
41
34
✓
LSU −9.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@TCU
38%
62%
0
37
✓
TCU −4.5
–
–
Final
Washington@Stanford
56%
44%
27
9
✓
WASH −2.8
–
–
Final
#13Missouri@Colorado
61%
39%
55
10
✓
MIZ −4.8
–
–
Final
#7Arizona State@#4Oregon
28%
72%
23
35
✓
ORE −8.6
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Southern Miss@UAB
61%
39%
37
7
✓
USM −4.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
62%
38%
43
40
✓
MTSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
38%
62%
28
52
✓
TOL −4.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@UConn
40%
60%
19
38
✓
CONN −3.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
68%
32%
49
25
✓
TLSA −7.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
59%
41%
24
27
✗
WYO −4.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington State@#16California
14%
86%
17
20
✓
CAL −17.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
60%
40%
40
38
✓
NEV −4.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@Houston
8.3%
92%
28
38
✓
HOU −21.8
–
–

Time TBD 5 games

Final
South Carolina@#24Arkansas
34%
66%
36
48
✓
ARK −6.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#9USC
17%
84%
3
24
✓
USC −15.1
–
–
Final
Florida State@#10Boston CollegeUpset
23%
77%
27
17
✗
BC −11.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
62%
38%
44
17
✓
ILL −5.3
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#5Oklahoma
13%
87%
14
42
✓
OU −17.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 3 · 2:30 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #11 Auburn Auburn −55.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 3 · 2:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −36.5 99%