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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Louisville4.5% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upUNLV over Utah26% chance · won 27-0
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Texas Tech32% chance · won 49-45

Upsets

Thu, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Texas A&M@Miami (FL)
44%
56%
17
34
✓
MIA −2.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
North Carolina@USF
21%
79%
10
37
✓
USF −13.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
34%
66%
27
14
✗
IU −7.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#17LouisvilleUpset
4.5%
96%
38
35
✗
LOU −28.3
–
–
Final
#22Clemson@NC State
68%
32%
42
20
✓
CLEM −7.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Bowling Green
15%
85%
35
48
✓
BGSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
62%
38%
23
28
✗
GT −4.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#6West Virginia
8.0%
92%
7
48
✓
WVU −23.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
39%
61%
20
27
✓
AKR −4.9
–
–
Final
#2Florida@Ole Miss
92%
8.5%
30
24
✓
FLA −22.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@#18Nebraska
21%
79%
40
41
✓
NEB −13.3
–
–
Final
Army@#11Boston College
4.5%
96%
17
37
✓
BC −28.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Navy
16%
84%
43
46
✓
NAVY −16.7
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Wyoming@Ohio
56%
44%
34
33
✓
WYO −2.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@#25BYU
33%
67%
6
31
✓
BYU −7.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#1LSU
8.2%
92%
16
28
✓
LSU −23.2
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@MichiganUpset
51%
49%
9
14
✗
PSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
27%
73%
24
31
✓
WAKE −10.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#7Ohio State
6.7%
93%
7
58
✓
OSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Colorado
33%
67%
0
42
✓
COLO −7.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@UCF
34%
66%
20
56
✓
UCF −6.7
–
–
Final
#10Texas Tech@Oklahoma StateUpset
68%
32%
45
49
✗
TTU −7.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
66%
34%
31
14
✓
MSU −6.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Houston
24%
76%
27
38
✓
HOU −11.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Idaho
76%
24%
42
35
✓
NIU −11.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#19ArkansasUpset
34%
66%
42
29
✗
ARK −7.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@#9California
11%
89%
27
45
✓
CAL −20.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Buffalo
49%
51%
34
21
✗
BUF −0.5
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
New Mexico State@Auburn
15%
85%
20
55
✓
AUB −17.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Pittsburgh
34%
66%
34
14
✗
PITT −6.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
56%
44%
30
20
✓
FAU −2.4
–
–
Final
Rice@#13Texas
2.3%
98%
14
58
✓
TEX −33.0
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
71%
29%
48
31
✓
TROY −9.1
–
–
Final
FIU@#16Kansas
1.8%
98%
3
55
✓
KU −34.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Tennessee
23%
77%
27
48
✓
TENN −12.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Toledo
44%
56%
35
36
✓
TOL −2.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@#15Cincinnati
4.2%
96%
14
40
✓
CIN −28.7
–
–
Final
Georgia@Alabama
38%
62%
26
23
✗
ALA −5.1
–
–
Final
SMU@#24TCU
11%
89%
7
21
✓
TCU −20.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
57%
43%
45
31
✓
PUR −2.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Utah@UNLV
74%
26%
0
27
✗
UTAH −10.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#20Arizona State
26%
74%
32
44
✓
ASU −10.8
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Stanford
88%
12%
55
31
✓
ORE −19.3
–
–
Final
Washington@UCLA
39%
61%
31
44
✓
UCLA −4.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#3Oklahoma@Tulsa
71%
29%
62
21
✓
OU −8.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Washington State@#5USC
11%
89%
14
47
✓
USC −20.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Wisconsin
37%
63%
13
17
✓
WIS −5.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
43%
57%
23
20
✗
USU −2.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −5.5 63%
Sat, Sep 22 · 6:36 PM ET Portland State vs San Diego State San Diego State −10.9 74%
Sun, Sep 23 · 12:05 AM ET Charleston Southern vs #12 Hawaii Hawaii −35.6 98%
Sat, Sep 22 · 2:08 PM ET Illinois State at #21 Missouri Missouri −43.7 >99%
Sun, Sep 23 · TBD Sacramento State at New Mexico New Mexico −20.0 88%
Sat, Sep 22 · 1:30 PM ET William & Mary at #23 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −42.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Mississippi State Mississippi State −32.6 98%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET North Dakota State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −7.3 67%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET Howard at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −17.2 85%
Sat, Sep 22 · 9:05 PM ET Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP −32.4 97%
Sun, Sep 23 · TBD SE Louisiana vs Tulane Tulane −20.7 89%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at Western Michigan Western Michigan −18.8 87%