The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockDelaware over Navy10% chance · won 59-52
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Kentucky15% chance · won 31-14
  • Runner-upGeorgia over Florida16% chance · won 42-30

Upsets

Thu, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#11Boston College@#23Virginia Tech
48%
52%
14
10
✗
VT −0.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
40%
60%
31
34
✓
UNM −3.4
–
–

Fri, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boise State@Fresno State
58%
42%
34
21
✓
BOIS −3.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Louisville
21%
79%
17
24
✓
LOU −12.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
23%
77%
10
37
✓
WAKE −11.3
–
–
Final
#3West Virginia@#22Rutgers
63%
37%
31
3
✓
WVU −5.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wisconsin
31%
69%
3
33
✓
WIS −7.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Illinois
36%
64%
17
28
✓
ILL −5.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
59%
41%
27
34
✗
MSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
18%
82%
17
35
✓
PUR −14.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@#18Texas TechUpset
21%
79%
31
26
✗
TTU −12.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#25KentuckyUpset
15%
85%
31
14
✗
UK −15.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Buffalo
45%
55%
10
26
✓
BUF −1.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
55%
44%
41
32
✓
CMU −2.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Arkansas
1.1%
99%
10
58
✓
ARK −36.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#12Missouri
2.2%
98%
28
42
✓
MIZ −32.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Vanderbilt
20%
80%
13
24
✓
VAN −12.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
20%
80%
24
29
✓
WYO −13.0
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
SMU@Tulsa
16%
84%
23
29
✓
TLSA −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Utah State
46%
54%
31
21
✗
USU −1.2
–
–
Final
#7USC@#2Oregon
26%
74%
17
24
✓
ORE −9.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
46%
54%
28
27
✗
TULN −1.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
32%
68%
48
41
✗
WASH −7.1
–
–
Final
#10USF@UConnUpset
56%
44%
15
22
✗
USF −2.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@#6FloridaUpset
16%
84%
42
30
✗
FLA −15.2
–
–
Final
#24Clemson@Maryland
59%
41%
30
17
✓
CLEM −4.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#17Michigan
9.7%
90%
10
34
✓
MICH −20.3
–
–
Final
UAB@East Carolina
20%
80%
6
41
✓
ECU −13.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#15Texas
14%
86%
25
28
✓
TEX −16.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@#20Kansas State
6.6%
93%
13
51
✓
KSU −23.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
61%
39%
2
19
✗
WMU −4.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Florida Atlantic
27%
73%
33
30
✗
FAU −9.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Nevada
6.2%
94%
21
37
✓
NEV −24.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
60%
40%
24
29
✗
UVA −4.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Marshall
34%
66%
21
34
✓
MRSH −6.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
60%
40%
27
3
✓
UTAH −4.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#13Auburn
7.0%
93%
3
17
✓
AUB −23.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
32%
68%
38
27
✗
BGSU −7.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington State
70%
30%
7
27
✗
UCLA −8.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
23%
77%
6
23
✓
ORST −11.1
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#9Kansas@Texas A&M
61%
39%
19
11
✓
KU −5.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
78%
22%
48
28
✓
MTSU −12.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
64%
36%
27
0
✓
TROY −6.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
40%
60%
21
70
✓
TOL −3.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Tennessee
40%
60%
24
27
✓
TENN −3.7
–
–
Final
Houston@UTEP
64%
36%
34
31
✓
HOU −6.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#14California@#8Arizona State
34%
66%
20
31
✓
ASU −6.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@#21Hawaii
4.5%
96%
13
50
✓
HAW −26.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Duke@Florida State
10%
90%
6
25
✓
FSU −19.8
–
–
Final
#4Ohio State@#16Penn State
58%
42%
37
17
✓
OSU −3.8
–
–

Mon, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCF@Southern Miss
44%
56%
34
17
✗
USM −1.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 27 · 1:00 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −19.6 90%