The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Alabama6.7% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Central Michigan15% chance · won 48-45
  • Runner-upArizona over Oregon17% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Tue, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Ball State
21%
79%
20
41
✓
BALL −12.4
–
–

Wed, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
34%
66%
0
7
✓
M-OH −6.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#3Oregon@ArizonaUpset
83%
17%
24
34
✗
ORE −15.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#20Hawaii@Nevada
76%
24%
28
26
✓
HAW −11.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
18%
82%
27
31
✓
ARST −14.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Syracuse@UConn
6.7%
93%
7
30
✓
CONN −23.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Florida State
28%
72%
16
24
✓
FSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#6Florida
2.3%
98%
20
59
✓
FLA −31.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
19%
81%
25
27
✓
GT −13.4
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@#22Michigan
62%
38%
14
3
✓
OSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
19%
81%
16
20
✓
RUTG −13.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Army
78%
22%
49
39
✓
TLSA −12.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
15%
85%
22
41
✓
ILL −16.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Temple
55%
45%
14
24
✗
KENT −2.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#16Georgia
28%
72%
13
24
✓
UGA −8.8
–
–
Final
#9Missouri@Kansas State
64%
36%
49
32
✓
MIZ −6.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
46%
54%
31
17
✗
BUF −1.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
23%
77%
31
45
✓
ARK −11.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@#18Boise State
0.6%
99%
14
58
✓
BOIS −39.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
36%
64%
35
17
✗
NMSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#24Tennessee
18%
82%
24
25
✓
TENN −14.3
–
–
Final
#25BYU@Wyoming
70%
30%
35
10
✓
BYU −8.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
17%
83%
23
55
✓
AF −14.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Notre Dame
28%
72%
7
28
✓
ND −8.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@AlabamaUpset
6.7%
93%
21
14
✗
ALA −23.5
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Tulane@Rice
40%
60%
45
31
✗
RICE −3.3
–
–
Final
UCF@SMU
77%
23%
49
20
✓
UCF −12.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
53%
47%
24
27
✗
PUR −1.7
–
–
Final
#17Penn State@Michigan StateUpset
53%
47%
31
35
✗
PSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
75%
25%
41
34
✓
WIS −11.2
–
–
Final
#1LSU@Ole Miss
94%
6.2%
41
24
✓
LSU −25.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
28%
72%
9
25
✓
MEM −9.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@Houston
17%
83%
28
35
✓
HOU −15.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#14Virginia Tech
14%
86%
14
44
✓
VT −16.6
–
–
Final
#21California@WashingtonUpset
59%
41%
23
37
✗
CAL −4.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7Kansas
2.8%
97%
7
45
✓
KU −30.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Navy
14%
86%
24
35
✓
NAVY −16.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@IowaUpset
22%
78%
28
19
✗
IOWA −12.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
24%
76%
18
38
✓
WAKE −10.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah
22%
78%
10
28
✓
UTAH −12.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
47%
53%
52
17
✗
WSU −0.7
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
UNLV@TCU
11%
89%
10
34
✓
TCU −19.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTEP
51%
49%
56
30
✓
USM −0.7
–
–
Final
#19Boston College@#11Clemson
31%
69%
20
17
✗
CLEM −7.3
–
–
Final
#2West Virginia@#12Cincinnati
59%
41%
28
23
✓
WVU −4.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@#13USF
28%
72%
17
55
✓
USF −8.6
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@#23Texas Tech
64%
36%
27
34
✗
OU −6.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Central MichiganUpset
15%
85%
48
45
✗
CMU −16.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
81%
19%
45
14
✓
OKST −14.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@FIU
53%
47%
38
28
✓
UL −1.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Louisiana Tech
38%
62%
23
27
✓
LT −4.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 17 · 2:06 PM ET Georgia Southern vs Colorado State Colorado State −10.5 76%