The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 15.7 expected

  • Biggest shockOregon State over California13% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upTemple over Akron17% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upLouisville over Cincinnati23% chance · won 28-24

Upsets

Thu, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida State@Wake Forest
50%
50%
21
24
✗
FSU −0.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Navy@Pittsburgh
48%
52%
48
45
✗
PITT −1.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
UCF@#17USF
16%
84%
12
64
✓
USF −16.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan
39%
61%
21
48
✓
MICH −4.7
–
–
Final
#25Virginia Tech@Duke
78%
22%
43
14
✓
VT −12.9
–
–
Final
#23Rutgers@Syracuse
85%
15%
38
14
✓
RUTG −17.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@#3Ohio State
2.9%
97%
3
48
✓
OSU −31.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
29%
71%
42
48
✓
OHIO −9.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
48%
52%
6
10
✓
IOWA −0.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)
46%
54%
17
14
✗
MIA −1.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
41%
59%
48
49
✓
NU −4.0
–
–
Final
#22Texas@Iowa State
86%
14%
56
3
✓
TEX −18.2
–
–
Final
Alabama@Ole Miss
63%
37%
27
24
✓
ALA −5.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Nebraska
42%
58%
45
14
✗
NEB −3.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@#12Kansas
8.8%
91%
10
58
✓
KU −22.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Buffalo
31%
69%
33
43
✓
BUF −8.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
36%
64%
20
3
✗
WYO −6.1
–
–
Final
#24Tennessee@Mississippi State
62%
38%
33
21
✓
TENN −5.1
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
51%
49%
14
47
✗
BGSU −0.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
20%
80%
7
23
✓
UTAH −14.2
–
–
Final
Arizona@#8USC
13%
87%
13
20
✓
USC −18.9
–
–
Final
#1LSU@KentuckyUpset
76%
24%
37
43
✗
LSU −11.9
–
–
Final
#21South Carolina@North Carolina
69%
31%
21
15
✓
SC −8.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#20Penn State
29%
71%
7
38
✓
PSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
8.1%
92%
48
56
✓
HOU −23.3
–
–
Final
UConn@Virginia
52%
48%
16
17
✗
CONN −0.6
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#16Texas Tech
26%
74%
7
35
✓
TTU −10.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@#6Oregon
7.2%
93%
7
53
✓
ORE −24.3
–
–
Final
Army@Central Michigan
24%
76%
23
47
✓
CMU −11.8
–
–
Final
#10Boston College@Notre Dame
78%
22%
27
14
✓
BC −13.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
59%
41%
17
13
✓
WMU −3.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Idaho
88%
12%
37
24
✓
FRES −19.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Stanford
69%
31%
38
36
✓
TCU −8.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
53%
47%
45
21
✓
AF −1.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Vanderbilt
63%
37%
20
17
✓
UGA −5.4
–
–
Final
Temple@AkronUpset
17%
83%
24
20
✗
AKR −16.1
–
–
Final
#15Missouri@#2Oklahoma
22%
78%
31
41
✓
OU −13.2
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Tulane@UAB
27%
73%
21
26
✓
UAB −10.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tulsa
13%
87%
31
38
✓
TLSA −18.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas
59%
41%
21
31
✗
ULM −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
23%
77%
21
52
✓
ARST −12.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@#9CincinnatiUpset
23%
77%
28
24
✗
CIN −12.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana Tech
38%
62%
21
22
✓
LT −5.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#7CaliforniaUpset
13%
87%
31
28
✗
CAL −19.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan State
38%
62%
27
52
✓
MSU −5.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Southern Miss
30%
70%
7
28
✓
USM −8.9
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@Arkansas
56%
44%
9
7
✓
AUB −2.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UTEP
46%
54%
45
42
✗
UTEP −1.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas State
33%
67%
20
47
✓
KSU −7.4
–
–
Final
#19BYU@UNLV
79%
21%
24
14
✓
BYU −13.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington@#11Arizona State
23%
77%
20
44
✓
ASU −12.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#14Hawaii@San Jose State
90%
10%
42
35
✓
HAW −20.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Memphis
48%
52%
21
7
✗
MEM −0.9
–
–

Mon, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Nevada@#18Boise State
12%
88%
67
69
✓
BOIS −19.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 13 · 2:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at Ball State Ball State −14.5 81%