The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 93

Wilder than 93% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMcNeese over Louisiana5.4% chance · won 38-17
  • Runner-upIowa State over Iowa10% chance · won 15-13
  • Runner-upDuke over Northwestern13% chance · won 20-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4West Virginia@Maryland
81%
19%
31
14
✓
WVU −13.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@Air Force
54%
46%
17
20
✗
TCU −2.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Temple@UConn
3.4%
97%
17
22
✓
CONN −28.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Indiana
32%
68%
24
41
✓
IU −6.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Michigan State
33%
67%
13
17
✓
MSU −6.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
37%
63%
22
20
✗
UNC −4.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Syracuse
49%
51%
41
20
✗
ILL −0.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
64%
36%
47
10
✓
CIN −6.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern IllinoisUpset
20%
80%
21
19
✗
NIU −12.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Purdue
25%
75%
22
45
✓
PUR −10.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#12Penn State
5.9%
94%
24
45
✓
PSU −23.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@AuburnUpset
17%
84%
19
14
✗
AUB −14.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Florida Atlantic
66%
34%
39
42
✗
MINN −7.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Virginia Tech
21%
79%
7
28
✓
VT −12.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa StateUpset
90%
10%
13
15
✗
IOWA −20.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Missouri
12%
88%
24
52
✓
MIZ −18.2
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
#13Texas Tech@Rice
92%
8.1%
59
24
✓
TTU −22.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#3Florida
19%
81%
20
59
✓
FLA −13.0
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Michigan
31%
70%
0
38
✓
MICH −7.4
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
9.4%
91%
10
21
✓
WAKE −20.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@#2Oklahoma
0.7%
99%
3
54
✓
OU −38.2
–
–
Final
#10Ohio State@Washington
50%
50%
33
14
✗
OSU −0.5
–
–
Final
#6Texas@UCF
81%
19%
35
32
✓
TEX −14.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Miami (FL)
1.9%
98%
9
23
✓
MIA −32.2
–
–
Final
#15UCLA@UtahUpset
72%
28%
6
44
✗
UCLA −9.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Navy
35%
65%
34
31
✗
NAVY −5.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
30%
70%
28
21
✗
ECU −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#11California
4.9%
95%
12
42
✓
CAL −25.4
–
–
Final
#24Arkansas@AlabamaUpset
47%
53%
38
41
✓
ALA −0.7
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
37%
63%
17
31
✓
VAN −4.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas A&M
12%
88%
14
54
✓
TA&M −17.7
–
–
Final
SMU@Arkansas State
34%
66%
28
45
✓
ARST −5.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@#25Kansas
5.0%
95%
13
45
✓
KU −25.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#5Oregon
11%
89%
21
52
✓
ORE −18.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
74%
26%
34
10
✓
HOU −10.2
–
–
Final
#16Louisville@KentuckyUpset
54%
46%
34
40
✗
LOU −2.1
–
–
Final
Duke@NorthwesternUpset
13%
87%
20
14
✗
NU −16.7
–
–
Final
#20BYU@TulsaUpset
49%
51%
47
55
✓
BYU −0.3
–
–
Final
#22Hawaii@UNLV
77%
23%
49
14
✓
HAW −12.0
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
San Jose State@Stanford
36%
64%
0
37
✓
STAN −5.1
–
–
Final
Florida State@Colorado
60%
40%
16
6
✓
FSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
1.3%
99%
28
45
✓
WSU −34.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#19Arizona State
5.6%
94%
13
34
✓
ASU −24.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Arizona
38%
62%
29
27
✗
ARIZ −4.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Oklahoma State@Troy
69%
31%
23
41
✗
OKST −8.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#17Boston College@#18Georgia Tech
40%
60%
24
10
✗
GT −3.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Boise State
33%
67%
14
24
✓
BOIS −6.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#1LSU
1.2%
99%
0
44
✓
LSU −34.8
–
–
Final
#8USC@#9Nebraska
38%
62%
49
31
✗
NEB −4.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
53%
47%
24
29
✗
UTEP −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State vs UAB UAB −16.6 86%
Sat, Sep 15 · 1:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #21 Georgia Georgia −56.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM ET Wofford at NC State NC State −22.1 93%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:30 PM ET Norfolk State vs #7 Rutgers Rutgers −36.0 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:30 PM ET Idaho State at Oregon State Oregon State −39.3 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 1:00 PM ET Furman at #23 Clemson Clemson −36.1 99%
Sun, Sep 16 · TBD Jacksonville State at Memphis Memphis −8.9 73%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State vs Baylor Baylor −6.8 68%
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:00 PM ET The Citadel at #14 Wisconsin Wisconsin −46.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:30 PM ET New Hampshire at Marshall Marshall −13.5 82%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −24.6 95%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:05 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas State Kansas State −17.9 88%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:00 PM ET Delaware State at Kent State Kent State −17.6 88%
Sat, Sep 15 · 9:00 PM ET Nicholls at Nevada Nevada −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at South Carolina South Carolina −41.8 >99%