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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 77

Wilder than 77% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Ohio State10% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Middle Tennessee10% chance · won 34-24
  • Runner-upMemphis over Southern Miss20% chance · won 29-26

Upsets

Tue, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
52%
48%
34
31
✓
CMU −1.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Akron
51%
49%
37
48
✗
OHIO −0.8
–
–

Thu, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisville@#1West Virginia
13%
87%
31
38
✓
WVU −17.8
–
–
Final
TCU@BYU
32%
68%
22
27
✓
BYU −6.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
57%
43%
39
32
✓
BGSU −3.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
83%
17%
41
6
✓
RUTG −15.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Indiana@Northwestern
53%
47%
28
31
✗
IU −1.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
36%
64%
27
31
✓
NCSU −5.0
–
–
Final
#14USF@Syracuse
88%
12%
41
10
✓
USF −19.5
–
–
Final
#17Penn State@Temple
94%
6.5%
31
0
✓
PSU −24.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#11Clemson
25%
75%
10
44
✓
CLEM −10.1
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@WisconsinUpset
54%
46%
21
37
✗
MICH −2.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
34%
66%
48
31
✗
PUR −5.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
22%
78%
16
21
✓
IOWA −12.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
68%
32%
28
31
✗
COLO −8.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Nebraska
64%
36%
31
73
✗
KSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Alabama@Mississippi State
61%
39%
12
17
✗
ALA −5.1
–
–
Final
#24Arkansas@TennesseeUpset
44%
56%
13
34
✓
TENN −1.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#9Missouri
16%
84%
26
40
✓
MIZ −15.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
79%
21%
41
24
✓
GT −13.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
56%
44%
27
20
✓
UK −2.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@Notre Dame
62%
38%
41
24
✓
AF −5.5
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
24%
76%
23
26
✓
UNM −10.6
–
–
Final
#23Boise State@Utah State
91%
8.8%
52
0
✓
BOIS −22.0
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
34%
66%
43
42
✗
SMU −6.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulsa
52%
48%
7
56
✗
HOU −1.2
–
–
Final
#10Arizona State@UCLA
65%
35%
24
20
✓
ASU −6.5
–
–
Final
#21Auburn@#25Georgia
42%
58%
20
45
✓
UGA −2.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#3Ohio StateUpset
10%
90%
28
21
✗
OSU −19.9
–
–
Final
#20Texas Tech@#15Texas
38%
62%
43
59
✓
TEX −4.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
25%
75%
0
50
✓
UTAH −10.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@#13Virginia Tech
30%
70%
21
40
✓
VT −7.8
–
–
Final
UConn@#19Cincinnati
34%
66%
3
27
✓
CIN −6.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle TennesseeUpset
10%
90%
34
24
✗
MTSU −19.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@San Jose State
42%
58%
17
51
✓
SJSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Navy@North Texas
80%
20%
74
62
✓
NAVY −13.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Florida Atlantic
37%
63%
31
34
✓
FAU −4.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
56%
44%
20
27
✗
KENT −2.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Marshall
72%
28%
7
26
✗
ECU −9.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern MissUpset
20%
80%
29
26
✗
USM −13.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@#5Oklahoma
1.3%
99%
21
52
✓
OU −35.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
27%
73%
17
33
✓
WSU −9.4
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Virginia@Miami (FL)
36%
64%
48
0
✗
MIA −5.0
–
–
Final
UCF@UAB
80%
20%
45
31
✓
UCF −14.1
–
–
Final
#6Florida@South Carolina
66%
34%
51
31
✓
FLA −6.9
–
–
Final
#8USC@#22California
52%
48%
24
17
✓
USC −1.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#2LSU
1.2%
99%
10
58
✓
LSU −36.1
–
–
Final
#12Boston College@MarylandUpset
69%
31%
35
42
✗
BC −8.6
–
–
Final
#7Kansas@Oklahoma State
60%
40%
43
28
✓
KU −4.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Washington@Oregon State
40%
60%
23
29
✓
ORST −3.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#18Hawaii
16%
84%
30
37
✓
HAW −15.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
42%
58%
38
30
✗
UNLV −2.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UTEP@Tulane
64%
36%
19
34
✗
UTEP −6.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 10 · 5:00 PM ET Troy at Western Kentucky Troy −12.0 76%
Sat, Nov 10 · 5:00 PM ET Grambling at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −24.2 94%