The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Rutgers11% chance · won 34-24
  • Runner-upColorado over Oklahoma12% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upAuburn over Florida16% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
30%
70%
31
35
✓
ARST −8.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Boise State
22%
78%
16
38
✓
BOIS −12.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Akron@UConn
19%
81%
10
44
✓
CONN −14.5
–
–
Final
#24Michigan@Northwestern
76%
24%
28
16
✓
MICH −11.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia Tech
16%
84%
10
17
✓
VT −16.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Army
25%
75%
21
37
✓
ARMY −11.4
–
–
Final
#18Penn State@IllinoisUpset
64%
36%
20
27
✗
PSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ball State
18%
82%
14
49
✓
BALL −15.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
38%
62%
10
35
✓
CMU −5.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Miami (FL)
10%
90%
14
24
✓
MIA −21.0
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Purdue
13%
87%
19
33
✓
PUR −18.9
–
–
Final
#1LSU@Tulane
99%
1.3%
34
9
✓
LSU −36.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@IowaUpset
24%
76%
38
20
✗
IOWA −12.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas A&M
28%
72%
10
34
✓
TA&M −9.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
22%
78%
21
38
✓
SC −12.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#20Kentucky
10%
90%
17
45
✓
UK −21.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
44%
56%
20
31
✓
NAVY −2.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#25Georgia
17%
83%
17
45
✓
UGA −16.2
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@ColoradoUpset
88%
12%
24
27
✗
OU −19.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#21Nebraska
6.9%
93%
17
35
✓
NEB −24.7
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Syracuse@Miami (OH)
43%
57%
14
17
✓
M-OH −3.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
35%
65%
33
25
✗
OHIO −6.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
12%
88%
18
34
✓
UTAH −19.8
–
–
Final
#17Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
53%
46%
3
13
✗
CLEM −1.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@NC State
67%
33%
29
10
✓
LOU −7.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#11RutgersUpset
11%
89%
34
24
✗
RUTG −20.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#9TexasUpset
19%
81%
41
21
✗
TEX −14.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
40%
60%
34
37
✓
WIS −4.2
–
–
Final
#10California@#5Oregon
30%
70%
31
24
✗
ORE −9.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
38%
62%
20
27
✓
NEV −5.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@SMU
53%
47%
48
45
✓
UTEP −1.1
–
–
Final
Alabama@Florida State
38%
62%
14
21
✓
FSU −5.1
–
–
Final
#8Hawaii@Idaho
98%
1.9%
48
20
✓
HAW −34.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@UCF
9.1%
91%
19
37
✓
UCF −22.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon State
52%
48%
40
14
✓
UCLA −0.8
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
North Texas@Arkansas
5.1%
95%
7
66
✓
ARK −27.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulsa
19%
81%
30
38
✓
TLSA −14.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Vanderbilt
18%
82%
7
30
✓
VAN −15.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@HoustonUpset
19%
81%
37
35
✗
HOU −14.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia
44%
56%
14
44
✓
UVA −2.6
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
16%
84%
6
47
✓
MTSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@TCU
20%
80%
12
24
✓
TCU −14.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
56%
44%
42
28
✓
WMU −2.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Troy
14%
86%
7
24
✓
TROY −17.7
–
–
Final
#19BYU@New Mexico
60%
40%
31
24
✓
BYU −3.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Washington State@Arizona
46%
54%
20
48
✓
ARIZ −1.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Fresno State
26%
74%
6
17
✓
FRES −10.8
–
–
Final
#16Cincinnati@San Diego State
82%
18%
52
23
✓
CIN −15.2
–
–
Final
#15Arizona State@Stanford
79%
21%
41
3
✓
ASU −13.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#6West Virginia@#22USF
65%
35%
13
21
✗
WVU −6.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#23Auburn@#3FloridaUpset
16%
84%
20
17
✗
FLA −16.4
–
–
Final
#7Ohio State@Minnesota
84%
16%
30
7
✓
OSU −16.6
–
–
Final
#4USC@Washington
74%
26%
27
24
✓
USC −10.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · 4:00 PM ET UC Davis at San Jose State San Jose State −13.4 79%
Sat, Sep 29 · 1:00 PM ET UMass at #12 Boston College Boston College −18.7 87%
Sun, Sep 30 · TBD Arkansas-Pine Bluff at New Mexico State New Mexico State −17.8 86%
Sat, Sep 29 · 6:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at Bowling Green Bowling Green −7.6 67%
Sat, Sep 29 · 7:05 PM ET Sam Houston at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −23.1 92%
Sat, Sep 29 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at #13 Texas Tech Texas Tech −46.2 >99%