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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 70 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 28

Wilder than 28% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 16.2 expected

  • Biggest shockNicholls over Rice3.2% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upAppalachian State over Michigan13% chance · won 34-32
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Minnesota23% chance · won 32-31

Upsets

Thu, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
Buffalo@#18Rutgers
12%
88%
3
38
✓
RUTG −18.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
35%
65%
14
13
✗
BALL −5.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana-Monroe
61%
39%
35
17
✓
TLSA −4.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah State
53%
47%
23
16
✓
UNLV −1.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Utah@Oregon State
40%
60%
7
24
✓
ORST −3.4
–
–

Fri, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@Temple
73%
27%
30
19
✓
NAVY −10.1
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Kent State@Iowa State
40%
60%
23
14
✗
ISU −3.3
–
–
Final
#4LSU@Mississippi State
71%
29%
45
0
✓
LSU −9.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Colorado State@Colorado
37%
63%
28
31
✓
COLO −4.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Michigan State
34%
66%
18
55
✓
MSU −5.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#12Virginia Tech
23%
77%
7
17
✓
VT −10.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@#22Miami (FL)
21%
79%
3
31
✓
MIA −11.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Penn State
7.9%
92%
0
59
✓
PSU −21.5
–
–
Final
UConn@Duke
56%
44%
45
14
✓
CONN −3.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wyoming
42%
58%
3
23
✓
WYO −2.7
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#21Notre DameUpset
35%
65%
33
3
✗
ND −5.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#23Boston College
36%
64%
28
38
✓
BC −5.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Nebraska
32%
68%
10
52
✓
NEB −6.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
47%
53%
23
21
✗
MEM −0.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#10West Virginia
21%
78%
24
62
✓
WVU −11.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Illinois
60%
40%
40
34
✓
MIZ −4.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Northern Illinois
48%
52%
16
3
✗
NIU −0.4
–
–
Final
Houston@Oregon
38%
62%
27
48
✓
ORE −4.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15Wisconsin
30%
70%
21
42
✓
WIS −7.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@Stanford
64%
36%
45
17
✓
UCLA −6.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
52%
48%
14
27
✗
MTSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@#8BYU
24%
76%
7
20
✓
BYU −10.2
–
–
Final
UCF@NC State
31%
69%
25
23
✗
NCSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Pittsburgh
19%
81%
3
27
✓
PITT −13.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#19TCU
21%
79%
0
27
✓
TCU −12.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#24Georgia
36%
64%
14
35
✓
UGA −4.8
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Troy@#25Arkansas
22%
78%
26
46
✓
ARK −11.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@#14Oklahoma
11%
89%
10
79
✓
OU −18.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#7Texas
11%
89%
13
21
✓
TEX −18.3
–
–
Final
Army@Akron
34%
66%
14
22
✓
AKR −5.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kansas
43%
57%
7
52
✓
KU −2.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Toledo
49%
51%
52
24
✗
PUR −0.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Carolina
20%
80%
14
28
✓
SC −12.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#16Auburn
25%
75%
13
23
✓
AUB −10.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Jose State@Arizona State
27%
73%
3
45
✓
ASU −8.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
44%
56%
6
10
✓
UTEP −1.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@#2USC
0.9%
99%
10
38
✓
USC −36.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Washington@Syracuse
46%
54%
42
12
✗
SYR −1.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#17Tennessee@#11California
37%
63%
31
45
✓
CAL −4.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@MinnesotaUpset
23%
77%
32
31
✗
MINN −11.1
–
–

Mon, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Texas Tech@SMU
56%
44%
49
9
✓
TTU −2.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida State@#20Clemson
36%
64%
18
24
✓
CLEM −5.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 30 · 9:05 PM ET Weber State at #13 Boise State Boise State −45.0 >99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET Murray State at #3 Louisville Louisville −51.2 >99%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD SE Louisiana at New Mexico State New Mexico State −25.5 95%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −38.1 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:30 PM ET Western Kentucky at #5 Florida Florida −17.2 87%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:05 PM ET Elon at USF USF −29.7 97%
Sun, Sep 2 · 12:05 AM ET Northern Colorado vs #9 Hawaii Hawaii −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:07 PM ET Northeastern at Northwestern Northwestern −23.9 94%
Sun, Sep 2 · TBD Indiana State at Indiana Indiana −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −37.2 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Villanova at Maryland Maryland −32.4 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:07 PM ET Appalachian State at #6 Michigan Michigan −17.0 87%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:05 PM ET James Madison at North Carolina North Carolina −14.6 84%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #1 Ohio State Ohio State −41.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Ohio Ohio −22.1 93%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −28.1 97%
Sun, Sep 2 · TBD Nicholls at Rice Rice −28.5 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:05 PM ET Montana State at Texas A&M Texas A&M −31.2 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 10:05 PM ET Sacramento State at Fresno State Fresno State −12.6 80%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:07 PM ET Western Carolina at Alabama Alabama −38.8 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 2:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Air Force Air Force −24.3 94%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −15.2 84%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Southern Miss Southern Miss −45.6 >99%