The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 32 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Carolina over Boise State23% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upMichigan over Florida25% chance · won 41-35
  • Runner-upMississippi State over UCF37% chance · won 10-3

Upsets

Thu, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UtahvsNavy
73%
27%
35
32
✓
UTAH −10.1
–
–

Fri, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
MemphisvsFlorida Atlantic
40%
60%
27
44
✓
FAU −3.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Southern Missvs#12Cincinnati
16%
84%
21
31
✓
CIN −15.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
NevadavsNew Mexico
41%
59%
0
23
✓
UNM −3.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLAvs#17BYU
36%
64%
16
17
✓
BYU −5.1
–
–

Sun, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20Boise StatevsEast CarolinaUpset
76%
24%
38
41
✗
BOIS −12.0
–
–

Wed, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
PurduevsCentral Michigan
66%
34%
51
48
✓
PUR −7.3
–
–

Thu, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#15Arizona Statevs#16Texas
50%
50%
34
52
✓
ASU −0.3
–
–

Fri, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#19Boston CollegevsMichigan State
58%
42%
24
21
✓
BC −3.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
TCUvsHouston
66%
34%
20
13
✓
TCU −7.2
–
–
Final
MarylandvsOregon State
40%
60%
14
21
✓
ORST −3.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UConnvsWake Forest
50%
50%
10
24
✗
CONN −0.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
UCFvsMississippi State
63%
37%
3
10
✗
UCF −5.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Penn StatevsTexas A&M
65%
35%
24
17
✓
PSU −6.8
–
–

Sun, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
AlabamavsColorado
60%
40%
30
24
✓
ALA −4.4
–
–

Mon, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
CaliforniavsAir Force
54%
46%
42
36
✓
CAL −2.1
–
–
Final
Georgia TechvsFresno State
59%
41%
28
40
✗
GT −3.9
–
–
Final
#9USFvs#11Oregon
50%
50%
21
56
✓
USF −0.4
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
KentuckyvsFlorida State
51%
49%
35
28
✓
UK −1.0
–
–
Final
IndianavsOklahoma State
32%
68%
33
49
✓
OKST −7.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#13ClemsonvsAuburnUpset
60%
40%
20
23
✗
CLEM −4.6
–
–

Tue, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Wisconsinvs#24Tennessee
43%
57%
17
21
✓
TENN −2.4
–
–
Final
#7Missourivs#25Arkansas
65%
35%
38
7
✓
MIZ −6.7
–
–
Final
#23Michiganvs#3FloridaUpset
25%
75%
41
35
✗
FLA −10.4
–
–
Final
#21Texas TechvsVirginia
65%
35%
31
28
✓
TTU −6.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Illinoisvs#6USC
24%
76%
17
49
✓
USC −11.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22Hawaiivs#14Georgia
43%
57%
10
41
✓
UGA −2.4
–
–

Wed, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2West Virginiavs#1Oklahoma
48%
52%
48
28
✗
OU −0.2
–
–

Thu, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Kansasvs#10Virginia Tech
50%
50%
24
21
✓
KU −0.6
–
–

Sat, Jan 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
RutgersvsBall State
68%
32%
52
30
✓
RUTG −8.0
–
–

Sun, Jan 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling GreenvsTulsa
36%
64%
7
63
✓
TLSA −5.2
–
–

Mon, Jan 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4LSUvs#5Ohio State
49%
51%
38
24
✗
LSU −0.2
–
–