The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 33

Wilder than 33% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Iowa over Iowa State6.0% chance · won 24-13
  • Runner-upSouthern Illinois over Northern Illinois7.4% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upUSF over Auburn26% chance · won 26-23

Upsets

Thu, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@#15Louisville
8.1%
92%
42
58
✓
LOU −21.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Cincinnati
56%
44%
3
34
✗
ORST −2.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@#17Rutgers
22%
78%
24
41
✓
RUTG −11.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#3West Virginia@Marshall
88%
12%
48
23
✓
WVU −18.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Minnesota
26%
74%
35
41
✓
MINN −9.4
–
–
Final
Akron@#9Ohio State
9.7%
90%
2
20
✓
OSU −19.7
–
–
Final
#16Miami (FL)@#4Oklahoma
31%
69%
13
51
✓
OU −7.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
15%
85%
13
24
✓
UVA −15.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
60%
40%
38
16
✓
BALL −4.4
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Wake Forest
64%
36%
20
17
✓
NEB −6.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Northwestern
39%
61%
31
36
✓
NU −3.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Michigan State
19%
82%
17
28
✓
MSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Alabama@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
24
10
✓
ALA −1.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Temple
40%
60%
42
7
✗
TEM −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Clemson
6.7%
93%
26
49
✓
CLEM −22.9
–
–
Final
#6California@Colorado State
81%
19%
34
28
✓
CAL −13.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
6.4%
94%
18
32
✓
WYO −23.2
–
–
Final
NC State@#25Boston College
15%
85%
17
37
✓
BC −15.4
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Oregon@Michigan
41%
59%
39
7
✗
MICH −2.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Texas A&M
29%
71%
45
47
✓
TA&M −8.1
–
–
Final
Boise State@Washington
44%
56%
10
24
✓
WASH −1.9
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida State
11%
89%
24
34
✓
FSU −18.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#18GeorgiaUpset
29%
71%
16
12
✗
UGA −8.0
–
–
Final
Troy@#2Florida
4.7%
95%
31
59
✓
FLA −25.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kentucky
31%
69%
20
56
✓
UK −7.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Ole Miss
61%
39%
38
25
✓
MIZ −4.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@East Carolina
32%
68%
31
34
✓
ECU −6.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Utah
38%
62%
20
12
✗
UTAH −4.1
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#21Penn State
21%
79%
10
31
✓
PSU −12.1
–
–
Final
#10BYU@#22UCLA
46%
54%
17
27
✓
UCLA −0.8
–
–

Prime time 16 games

Final
Rice@Baylor
29%
72%
17
42
✓
BAY −8.3
–
–
Final
#14TCU@#20Texas
43%
57%
13
34
✓
TEX −2.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Washington State
27%
73%
17
45
✓
WSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Louisiana
48%
52%
31
23
✗
UL −0.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
28%
72%
31
52
✓
CMU −8.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tennessee
19%
80%
19
39
✓
TENN −12.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#13Texas Tech
11%
89%
31
45
✓
TTU −18.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Oklahoma State
23%
77%
6
42
✓
OKST −10.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@FIU
85%
15%
26
10
✓
MD −16.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Kansas State
19%
80%
14
34
✓
KSU −12.8
–
–
Final
#8Hawaii@Louisiana Tech
91%
9.0%
45
44
✓
HAW −21.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
36%
64%
38
17
✗
TULN −4.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Iowa
12%
88%
0
35
✓
IOWA −18.2
–
–
Final
USF@#24AuburnUpset
26%
74%
26
23
✗
AUB −9.3
–
–
Final
#19Virginia Tech@#1LSU
21%
79%
7
48
✓
LSU −12.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
27%
73%
34
44
✓
UNM −8.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#12Wisconsin@UNLV
85%
15%
20
13
✓
WIS −16.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona State
16%
84%
14
33
✓
ASU −14.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
North Texas@SMU
24%
76%
31
45
✓
SMU −10.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Western Michigan
41%
59%
37
27
✗
WMU −2.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at UConn UConn −30.5 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:34 PM ET Samford at #11 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −48.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −23.8 94%
Sat, Sep 8 · 5:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Idaho Cal Poly −1.0 51%
Sat, Sep 8 · 12:00 PM ET Grambling at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Rhode Island at Army Army −21.7 92%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Illinois Illinois −27.2 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:05 PM ET SE Louisiana at Kansas Kansas −49.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −22.1 93%
Sat, Sep 8 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Purdue Purdue −40.0 >99%