The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2007

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArkansas over LSU14% chance · won 50-48
  • Runner-upWashington State over Washington25% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upUCLA over Oregon29% chance · won 16-0

Upsets

Wed, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Troy
21%
79%
7
45
✓
TROY −12.2
–
–

Thu, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9USC@#11Arizona State
45%
55%
44
24
✗
ASU −1.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Central Michigan@Akron
58%
42%
35
32
✓
CMU −3.8
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Colorado
46%
54%
51
65
✓
COLO −1.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
25%
75%
14
17
✓
MSST −10.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
45%
55%
28
36
✓
CSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#2LSUUpset
14%
86%
50
48
✗
LSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
29%
71%
10
37
✓
BGSU −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#15Texas@Texas A&MUpset
62%
38%
30
38
✗
TEX −5.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Boise State@#23Hawaii
44%
56%
27
39
✓
HAW −1.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Miami (FL)@#17Boston College
15%
86%
14
28
✓
BC −16.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
51%
49%
37
0
✓
MD −1.1
–
–
Final
#10USF@Pittsburgh
77%
23%
48
37
✓
USF −12.3
–
–
Final
#12Virginia Tech@Virginia
62%
38%
33
21
✓
VT −5.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
17%
83%
12
35
✓
ECU −14.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
44%
56%
30
23
✗
KENT −2.0
–
–
Final
#24Tennessee@Kentucky
46%
54%
52
50
✗
UK −1.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
39%
61%
29
38
✓
OHIO −3.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
29%
71%
52
55
✓
MEM −8.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
31
17
✓
WAKE −1.3
–
–
Final
Utah@#20BYU
34%
66%
10
17
✓
BYU −6.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@UCF
12%
88%
20
36
✓
UCF −18.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Western Michigan
18%
82%
3
16
✓
WMU −14.4
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Tulsa@Rice
81%
19%
48
43
✓
TLSA −14.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Southern Miss
20%
80%
10
16
✓
USM −12.8
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Stanford
42%
58%
21
14
✗
STAN −2.8
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@UCLAUpset
71%
29%
0
16
✗
ORE −9.4
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@Georgia Tech
57%
43%
31
17
✓
UGA −3.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Idaho
63%
37%
24
19
✓
USU −5.9
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
18%
82%
14
20
✓
UNC −14.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#4Oklahoma
17%
83%
17
49
✓
OU −14.6
–
–
Final
UConn@#1West Virginia
14%
86%
21
66
✓
WVU −17.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Fresno State
52%
48%
29
45
✗
KSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
59%
41%
24
27
✗
NEV −4.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
77%
23%
27
21
✓
BALL −12.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Marshall
26%
74%
39
46
✓
MRSH −9.9
–
–
Final
Florida State@#5Florida
15%
85%
12
45
✓
FLA −16.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
21%
79%
6
27
✓
UNM −12.5
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#14Cincinnati@Syracuse
91%
9.0%
52
31
✓
CIN −21.8
–
–
Final
Alabama@#25Auburn
31%
69%
10
17
✓
AUB −7.3
–
–
Final
TCU@San Diego State
75%
25%
45
33
✓
TCU −11.3
–
–
Final
#8Missouri@#7Kansas
39%
61%
36
28
✗
KU −4.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Washington State@Washington
25%
75%
42
35
✗
WASH −10.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
55%
45%
17
11
✓
ULM −2.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
73%
27%
55
23
✓
FAU −10.2
–
–
Final
#13Clemson@South Carolina
59%
41%
23
21
✓
CLEM −4.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 24 · 3:30 PM ET Texas Southern vs Houston Houston −41.0 >99%
Sat, Nov 24 · 4:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at North Texas Western Kentucky −5.5 62%