The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 91

Wilder than 91% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 10.0 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio State over Miami (FL)18% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upNorth Texas over Cincinnati27% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Arkansas30% chance · won 29-14

Upsets

Wed, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
LouisvillevsMarshall
52%
48%
15
38
✗
LOU −1.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North TexasvsCincinnati
27%
73%
24
19
✗
CIN −9.4
–
–

Mon, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
ClemsonvsTexas Tech
38%
62%
15
55
✓
TTU −4.5
–
–

Wed, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#25UCLAvsNew Mexico
81%
19%
27
13
✓
UCLA −14.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
TulanevsHawaii
36%
64%
36
28
✗
HAW −5.2
–
–

Thu, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Boston CollegevsToledo
60%
40%
51
25
✓
BC −4.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburghvs#19Oregon StateUpset
41%
59%
38
13
✗
ORST −3.3
–
–

Fri, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsOklahoma State
43%
57%
23
33
✓
OKST −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
NebraskavsOle Miss
62%
38%
23
27
✗
NEB −5.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Kansas StatevsArizona State
88%
12%
34
27
✓
KSU −19.3
–
–

Sat, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
West VirginiavsVirginia
59%
41%
22
48
✗
WVU −4.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#17ColoradovsWisconsinUpset
64%
36%
28
31
✗
COLO −6.3
–
–

Mon, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#24ArkansasvsMinnesotaUpset
70%
30%
14
29
✗
ARK −8.7
–
–
Final
OregonvsWake Forest
63%
37%
17
38
✗
ORE −5.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Iowa Statevs#12Boise State
26%
74%
16
34
✓
BOIS −10.0
–
–
Final
PurduevsWashington
42%
58%
34
24
✗
WASH −2.9
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
TCUvsColorado State
43%
57%
17
3
✗
CSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Georgia TechvsFresno State
62%
38%
21
30
✗
GT −5.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Marylandvs#22Tennessee
51%
49%
30
3
✓
MD −1.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air Forcevs#13Virginia Tech
24%
76%
13
20
✓
VT −10.8
–
–

Wed, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
#16Michiganvs#15Florida
48%
52%
38
30
✗
FLA −0.5
–
–
Final
#5TexasvsLSU
74%
26%
35
20
✓
TEX −10.9
–
–
Final
#10Penn Statevs#23Auburn
63%
37%
9
13
✗
PSU −5.7
–
–
Final
#20NC Statevs#21Notre Dame
49%
51%
28
6
✗
NCSU −0.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#4Oklahomavs#14Washington State
71%
29%
34
14
✓
OU −9.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Georgiavs#7Florida State
48%
52%
26
13
✗
FSU −0.2
–
–

Thu, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Iowavs#3USC
35%
65%
17
38
✓
USC −5.6
–
–

Fri, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9Ohio Statevs#1Miami (FL)Upset
18%
82%
31
24
✗
MIA −14.0
–
–