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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockNortheastern over Ohio11% chance · won 31-0
  • Runner-upHoly Cross over Army13% chance · won 30-21
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Syracuse32% chance · won 30-22

Thu, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Oregon State@Temple
54%
46%
35
3
✓
ORST −2.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Hawaii@#14BYU
19%
82%
32
35
✓
BYU −13.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#12Georgia Tech@UConn
87%
13%
31
14
✓
GT −18.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Pittsburgh
41%
59%
14
12
✗
PITT −3.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Navy
58%
42%
65
19
✓
NCSU −3.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Southern Miss
30%
70%
20
23
✓
USM −7.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#20Michigan
13%
87%
12
35
✓
MICH −17.1
–
–
Final
#13Iowa@Miami (OH)
58%
42%
29
24
✓
IOWA −3.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@#11Ohio State
9.7%
90%
17
51
✓
OSU −19.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#24Wisconsin
24%
76%
17
34
✓
WIS −10.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
28%
72%
16
38
✓
MISS −8.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Northwestern
56%
44%
48
24
✓
TCU −2.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#15Notre Dame
16%
84%
17
24
✓
ND −15.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Clemson
26%
74%
13
33
✓
CLEM −9.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Central Michigan
24%
76%
20
32
✓
CMU −10.4
–
–
Final
Rice@#19Michigan State
8.9%
91%
10
27
✓
MSU −20.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Kentucky
21%
79%
17
77
✓
UK −12.2
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
New Mexico@Air Force
17%
84%
31
38
✓
AF −14.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@Boston College
36%
64%
27
34
✓
BC −5.1
–
–
Final
Alabama@#6Oklahoma
17%
83%
27
37
✓
OU −14.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington
15%
85%
10
34
✓
WASH −15.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#9Oregon
22%
78%
24
28
✓
ORE −11.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@#18Washington State
0.5%
>99%
14
49
✓
WSU −40.2
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#2Florida
62%
38%
41
16
✓
MIA −5.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Maryland
16%
84%
14
44
✓
MD −15.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
86%
14%
65
13
✓
TOL −17.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@California
25%
75%
13
34
✓
CAL −9.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Wake Forest
38%
62%
22
27
✓
WAKE −4.2
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Troy@UAB
35%
65%
26
27
✓
UAB −5.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@Arkansas
36%
64%
14
41
✓
ARK −4.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#25Colorado
17%
83%
14
34
✓
COLO −14.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@USF
24%
76%
6
37
✓
USF −10.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Missouri
19%
81%
6
41
✓
MIZ −13.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Duke
70%
30%
40
3
✓
LOU −8.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@#3Nebraska
2.2%
98%
13
44
✓
NEB −31.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Rutgers
40%
60%
34
11
✗
RUTG −3.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas State
50%
50%
19
21
✗
TLSA −0.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#7Tennessee
10%
90%
3
26
✓
TENN −19.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#10Kansas State
0.4%
>99%
0
68
✓
KSU −41.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Virginia
62%
38%
21
34
✗
SC −5.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
UCF@Arizona State
48%
52%
13
46
✓
ASU −0.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@UNLV
22%
78%
20
31
✓
UNLV −11.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UCLA
39%
61%
19
30
✓
UCLA −3.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
North Carolina@Syracuse
32%
68%
30
22
✗
SYR −6.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
34%
66%
34
13
✗
HOU −6.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@#17Utah
15%
85%
13
40
✓
UTAH −15.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Louisiana
82%
18%
35
11
✓
MINN −14.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
76%
24%
24
14
✓
TTU −11.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 7 · 5:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Auburn Auburn −38.4 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #22 Iowa State Iowa State −58.6 >99%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD The Citadel at LSU LSU −43.6 >99%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD Northeastern at Ohio Ohio −18.2 89%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:05 PM ET Northern Iowa at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Furman at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −17.2 87%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Samford at Baylor Baylor −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 7 · 8:05 PM ET Nicholls at North Texas North Texas −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 1:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Army Army −17.4 88%