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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockSoutheast Missouri State over Middle Tennessee1.2% chance · won 24-14
  • Runner-upBall State over UConn19% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upAlabama over Arkansas28% chance · won 30-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Florida State@#23Louisville
61%
39%
20
26
✗
FSU −4.4
–
–

Fri, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Texas Tech@New Mexico
60%
40%
49
0
✓
TTU −4.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Central Michigan@Boston College
14%
86%
0
43
✓
BC −18.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
58%
42%
35
22
✓
CIN −3.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
35%
65%
17
37
✓
WVU −6.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Navy
36%
64%
43
17
✗
NAVY −5.9
–
–
Final
#4Virginia Tech@Western Michigan
88%
12%
30
0
✓
VT −19.4
–
–
Final
#19Iowa@#13Penn State
33%
67%
42
35
✗
PSU −7.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#7Ohio State
8.2%
92%
17
45
✓
OSU −23.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@LSU
19%
81%
13
31
✓
LSU −14.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@UConnUpset
19%
82%
24
21
✗
CONN −15.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia
12%
88%
10
41
✓
UGA −19.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Army
93%
6.8%
27
6
✓
USM −24.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
17%
83%
24
39
✓
MSU −15.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Pittsburgh
50%
50%
19
37
✓
PITT −0.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@San Diego State
80%
20%
43
7
✓
UCLA −13.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Missouri
19%
81%
7
44
✓
MIZ −14.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
6
13
✓
NIU −4.5
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Air Force@Utah
30%
70%
30
26
✗
UTAH −8.8
–
–
Final
#20Stanford@Arizona StateUpset
54%
46%
24
65
✗
STAN −1.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#3Florida
17%
83%
34
41
✓
FLA −16.1
–
–
Final
#12Nebraska@#21Iowa State
46%
54%
14
36
✓
ISU −1.8
–
–
Final
#15Georgia Tech@North Carolina
64%
36%
21
13
✓
GT −6.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@#25Washington
1.1%
99%
27
41
✓
WASH −38.1
–
–
Final
#18Michigan@Illinois
57%
43%
45
28
✓
MICH −2.8
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Tulane
91%
9.2%
49
0
✓
TEX −22.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Nevada
69%
31%
32
28
✓
CSU −8.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
36%
64%
48
38
✗
CAL −6.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
68%
32%
48
31
✓
M-OH −7.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
62%
38%
15
28
✗
MINN −5.1
–
–
Final
#9Oregon State@#8USC
39%
61%
0
22
✓
USC −4.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
43%
57%
38
34
✗
WAKE −3.0
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Memphis@UAB
59%
41%
17
31
✗
MEM −3.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
40%
60%
32
34
✓
OHIO −4.5
–
–
Final
USF@#6Oklahoma
12%
88%
14
31
✓
OU −19.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Tulsa
61%
39%
43
33
✓
KU −4.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
69%
31%
20
14
✓
SC −8.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas A&M
22%
78%
3
31
✓
TA&M −12.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#14Tennessee
1.8%
98%
14
35
✓
TENN −34.9
–
–
Final
Alabama@#11ArkansasUpset
28%
72%
30
12
✗
ARK −9.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
10%
90%
38
63
✓
BOIS −20.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#24Auburn
26%
74%
34
37
✓
AUB −11.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arizona
23%
77%
9
14
✓
ARIZ −12.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UTEP@San Jose State
20%
80%
24
58
✓
SJSU −13.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Hawaii
5.9%
94%
10
42
✓
HAW −26.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Rice
69%
31%
31
28
✓
FRES −8.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 28 · 6:00 PM ET Wofford at Maryland Maryland −32.2 97%
Sat, Sep 28 · 1:00 PM ET UMass at #17 NC State NC State −28.0 95%
Sat, Sep 28 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Arkansas State Arkansas State −4.4 60%
Sat, Sep 28 · 6:00 PM ET Liberty at UCF UCF −22.6 91%
Sat, Sep 28 · 6:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −11.4 75%
Sat, Sep 28 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −37.7 99%