The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Northern Illinois2.4% chance · won 29-26
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Illinois10% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upIdaho over San Diego State17% chance · won 48-38

Upsets

Thu, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Auburn@Mississippi State
50%
50%
42
14
✗
MSST −0.3
–
–

Fri, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCF@Marshall
22%
78%
21
26
✓
MRSH −13.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Ohio@UConn
25%
75%
19
37
✓
CONN −11.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
5.8%
94%
3
23
✓
PITT −26.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Navy
34%
66%
49
40
✗
NAVY −6.8
–
–
Final
#23Utah@#18Michigan
34%
66%
7
10
✓
MICH −6.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#19Penn State
20%
80%
17
49
✓
PSU −14.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Wisconsin
27%
73%
10
31
✓
WIS −10.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
13%
87%
38
45
✓
MISS −18.9
–
–
Final
#16NC State@Texas Tech
52%
48%
51
48
✓
NCSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@#24Clemson
3.0%
97%
7
30
✓
CLEM −31.2
–
–
Final
#25Louisville@Army
95%
5.2%
45
14
✓
LOU −26.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Kentucky
23%
77%
22
44
✓
UK −12.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
23%
77%
20
27
✓
M-OH −12.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@IllinoisUpset
10%
90%
38
35
✗
ILL −21.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Purdue
36%
64%
24
21
✗
PUR −6.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Minnesota
4.2%
96%
17
41
✓
MINN −28.8
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Akron@Virginia
14%
86%
29
48
✓
UVA −18.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@#14UCLAUpset
20%
80%
31
17
✗
UCLA −14.1
–
–
Final
BYU@#15Georgia Tech
29%
71%
19
28
✓
GT −9.4
–
–
Final
#20Notre Dame@Michigan State
56%
44%
21
17
✓
ND −2.5
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@Texas A&M
69%
31%
13
3
✓
VT −7.9
–
–
Final
#8Ohio State@Cincinnati
76%
24%
23
19
✓
OSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Iowa
5.7%
94%
7
48
✓
IOWA −26.3
–
–
Final
#5Florida@#7Tennessee
44%
56%
30
13
✗
TENN −2.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Nevada
34%
66%
21
31
✓
NEV −6.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@California
30%
70%
23
21
✗
CAL −9.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@IdahoUpset
83%
17%
38
48
✗
SDSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Indiana
40%
60%
29
39
✓
IU −4.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Maryland
2.6%
97%
3
45
✓
MD −32.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#17Oregon State
29%
72%
19
59
✓
ORST −9.5
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Duke@#4Florida State
1.2%
99%
17
48
✓
FSU −37.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Iowa State
14%
86%
12
42
✓
ISU −18.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Oklahoma State
16%
84%
16
52
✓
OKST −16.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Baylor
24%
76%
25
37
✓
BAY −12.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana
71%
29%
0
34
✗
UAB −9.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Alabama
39%
61%
7
20
✓
ALA −4.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kansas
72%
28%
39
16
✓
BGSU −9.6
–
–
Final
#9USC@#11Kansas State
41%
59%
20
27
✓
KSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
50%
50%
33
21
✓
ARST −0.1
–
–
Final
Temple@South Carolina
22%
78%
21
42
✓
SC −13.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@TCU
14%
86%
10
16
✓
TCU −17.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Toledo
16%
84%
21
38
✓
TOL −16.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@#1Miami (FL)
2.6%
97%
6
38
✓
MIA −32.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
78%
22%
31
6
✓
HAW −12.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Washington
4.3%
96%
7
38
✓
WASH −28.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
52%
48%
13
24
✗
UNM −0.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
45%
55%
10
38
✓
MEM −2.0
–
–
Final
Houston@#2Texas
2.0%
98%
11
41
✓
TEX −34.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · 1:00 PM ET Northwestern State at #22 Georgia Georgia −40.0 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 5:00 PM ET Montana State at Washington State Washington State −41.3 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:35 PM ET Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Portland State at #13 Oregon Oregon −38.6 99%