The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockWake Forest over Georgia Tech13% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Florida23% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Arizona State26% chance · won 38-35

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Clemson@#5Florida State
20%
80%
31
48
✓
FSU −14.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
BYU@Utah State
87%
13%
35
34
✓
BYU −18.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Illinois@Minnesota
31%
69%
10
31
✓
MINN −8.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#4Florida@Ole MissUpset
77%
23%
14
17
✗
FLA −11.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
66%
34%
27
22
✓
UVA −6.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
43%
57%
48
24
✗
SYR −2.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@West Virginia
37%
63%
48
17
✗
WVU −5.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@#13Iowa
18%
82%
28
31
✓
IOWA −15.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Texas
4.9%
95%
15
17
✓
TEX −27.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
64%
36%
31
17
✓
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
34%
66%
31
26
✗
CIN −6.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
23%
77%
10
34
✓
SC −12.1
–
–
Final
Army@East Carolina
7.7%
92%
24
59
✓
ECU −23.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Baylor
47%
53%
32
35
✓
BAY −1.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas A&M
39%
61%
48
47
✗
TA&M −4.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
54%
46%
41
29
✓
NIU −1.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kent State
76%
24%
42
21
✓
MRSH −11.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#23Notre Dame
28%
72%
7
31
✓
ND −10.0
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Navy@Air Force
6.0%
94%
7
48
✓
AF −25.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@SMU
68%
32%
34
23
✓
SJSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Houston@TCU
18%
82%
17
34
✓
TCU −15.2
–
–
Final
#9Kansas State@ColoradoUpset
60%
40%
31
35
✗
KSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#10Georgia TechUpset
14%
86%
24
21
✗
GT −18.4
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@#14Oregon State
38%
62%
43
35
✗
ORST −5.4
–
–
Final
California@Washington
32%
68%
34
27
✗
WASH −7.7
–
–
Final
#21Penn State@Wisconsin
47%
53%
34
31
✗
WIS −1.3
–
–
Final
#22Georgia@#16Alabama
38%
62%
27
25
✗
ALA −5.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
4.6%
95%
21
72
✓
BGSU −28.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
67%
33%
7
13
✗
MTSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
69%
31%
34
42
✗
AKR −8.3
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#8Ohio State@Northwestern
90%
9.5%
27
16
✓
OSU −21.7
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@Missouri
69%
31%
31
24
✓
OU −8.1
–
–
Final
#7USC@Washington StateUpset
63%
37%
27
30
✗
USC −5.4
–
–
Final
UConn@#1Miami (FL)
0.2%
>99%
14
48
✓
MIA −48.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisiana-Monroe
83%
17%
52
9
✓
TULN −15.9
–
–
Final
#25Arkansas@#20Tennessee
37%
63%
38
41
✓
TENN −5.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Boise State
49%
51%
31
58
✓
BOIS −0.7
–
–
Final
USF@North Texas
64%
36%
24
17
✓
USF −5.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
North Carolina@Arizona State
26%
74%
38
35
✗
ASU −10.6
–
–
Final
#17Oregon@Arizona
71%
29%
31
14
✓
ORE −9.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
41%
59%
17
21
✓
UNLV −4.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
52%
48%
30
32
✗
CSU −0.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Louisiana@LSU
6.3%
94%
0
48
✓
LSU −25.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
19%
81%
14
49
✓
NMSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Rice
53%
46%
20
37
✗
LT −1.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 5 · 3:07 PM ET Montana at Idaho Idaho −7.9 68%
Sat, Oct 5 · 12:30 PM ET McNeese at #24 Nebraska Nebraska −42.5 >99%
Sat, Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Troy Troy −16.2 84%
Sat, Oct 5 · 3:00 PM ET The Citadel at Wyoming Wyoming −25.3 94%