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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 36

Wilder than 36% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWyoming over Air Force8.4% chance · won 34-26
  • Runner-upIdaho over Middle Tennessee23% chance · won 21-18
  • Runner-upNotre Dame over Florida State23% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Thu, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22NC State@Clemson
48%
52%
38
6
✗
CLEM −0.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
BYU@Colorado State
21%
79%
10
37
✓
CSU −12.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
49%
51%
31
21
✗
HAW −0.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 21 games

Final
#12Notre Dame@#4Florida StateUpset
23%
77%
34
24
✗
FSU −11.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
68%
32%
42
13
✓
PUR −7.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
32%
68%
0
31
✓
WAKE −7.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
38%
62%
16
19
✓
PITT −4.4
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@West Virginia
93%
7.1%
40
23
✓
MIA −23.9
–
–
Final
#13Iowa@#18Michigan
44%
56%
34
9
✗
MICH −2.1
–
–
Final
#6LSU@AuburnUpset
66%
34%
7
31
✗
LSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
80%
20%
45
12
✓
MD −13.9
–
–
Final
Temple@#3Virginia Tech
2.1%
98%
10
20
✓
VT −32.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Army
77%
23%
29
26
✓
UAB −12.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
54%
46%
16
12
✓
KENT −2.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Central Michigan
86%
14%
23
18
✓
MRSH −17.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
43%
57%
24
20
✗
WMU −2.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Colorado
38%
62%
13
37
✓
COLO −4.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
12%
88%
14
45
✓
SYR −18.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#19Arkansas
20%
80%
28
48
✓
ARK −12.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Louisville
16%
84%
20
44
✓
LOU −15.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
9.0%
91%
12
36
✓
MIZ −21.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Vanderbilt
40%
60%
24
28
✓
VAN −3.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
25%
75%
14
45
✓
ILL −10.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
27%
73%
10
48
✓
CIN −9.2
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Utah@New Mexico
61%
39%
35
42
✗
UTAH −5.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tulsa
44%
56%
0
20
✓
TLSA −1.9
–
–
Final
#9Kansas State@Baylor
95%
4.7%
44
10
✓
KSU −27.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
20%
80%
15
27
✓
RICE −13.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Louisiana Tech
42%
58%
47
50
✓
LT −2.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@WyomingUpset
92%
8.4%
26
34
✗
AF −22.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@IdahoUpset
77%
23%
18
21
✗
MTSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
32%
68%
15
23
✓
GT −7.0
–
–
Final
#15Georgia@Kentucky
50%
50%
52
24
✓
UGA −0.5
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@#7Ohio State
30%
70%
7
13
✓
OSU −7.8
–
–
Final
#21Iowa State@#5Texas
20%
80%
10
21
✓
TEX −13.1
–
–
Final
#8USC@#20Oregon
50%
50%
44
33
✓
USC −0.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
11%
89%
30
51
✓
TULN −19.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
4.7%
95%
20
38
✓
BGSU −26.5
–
–
Final
California@#25Oregon State
33%
67%
13
24
✓
ORST −6.4
–
–
Final
Akron@UCF
10%
90%
17
28
✓
UCF −20.0
–
–
Final
Boise State@San Jose State
82%
18%
45
8
✓
BOIS −15.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana
53%
47%
27
0
✓
UNT −1.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@#16UCLA
15%
85%
18
28
✓
UCLA −15.9
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
UNLV@San Diego State
48%
52%
21
31
✓
SDSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#17Texas A&MUpset
33%
67%
38
31
✗
TA&M −6.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas State
71%
29%
26
21
✓
NMSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Louisiana-Monroe
71%
29%
48
51
✗
USU −9.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
32%
68%
27
13
✗
TOL −6.9
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Michigan State
57%
43%
42
24
✓
WIS −3.2
–
–
Final
#10Alabama@#24Tennessee
48%
52%
34
14
✗
TENN −0.2
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Washington@Arizona State
30%
70%
16
27
✓
ASU −7.9
–
–
Final
#23Washington State@Arizona
73%
27%
21
13
✓
WSU −10.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 26 · 3:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic at Troy Troy −16.4 85%