The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Diego State over Utah18% chance · won 36-17
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Miami (OH)20% chance · won 48-41
  • Runner-upLSU over Florida24% chance · won 36-7

Upsets

Wed, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#16Louisville@Memphis
76%
24%
38
32
✓
LOU −11.4
–
–

Thu, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Virginia Tech@Boston College
71%
29%
28
23
✓
VT −9.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
9.4%
91%
42
45
✓
MINN −20.6
–
–

Sat, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 21 games

Final
#17NC State@North Carolina
60%
40%
34
17
✓
NCSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Temple
61%
39%
16
17
✗
SYR −5.1
–
–
Final
Clemson@Virginia
52%
48%
17
22
✗
CLEM −1.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#18Iowa
22%
78%
16
44
✓
IOWA −11.9
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@#1Miami (FL)
12%
88%
27
28
✓
MIA −18.6
–
–
Final
Rice@Navy
63%
37%
17
10
✓
RICE −5.9
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
68%
32%
29
32
✗
WIS −8.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#8Ohio State
5.2%
95%
7
50
✓
OSU −25.7
–
–
Final
#25Arkansas@Auburn
42%
58%
38
17
✗
AUB −2.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Nebraska
30%
70%
13
24
✓
NEB −8.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Baylor
85%
15%
41
0
✓
TA&M −16.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Army
92%
8.4%
46
27
✓
TCU −22.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
44%
56%
31
38
✓
ILL −1.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
82%
18%
45
35
✓
BGSU −15.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
3.9%
96%
17
52
✓
MISS −27.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)Upset
20%
80%
48
41
✗
M-OH −12.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
22%
78%
27
55
✓
OHIO −12.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
78%
22%
53
29
✓
COLO −13.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#10Kansas State
17%
83%
9
44
✓
KSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#9Notre Dame
27%
73%
6
14
✓
ND −9.2
–
–
Final
Troy@Mississippi State
31%
69%
8
11
✓
MSST −7.3
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Houston@UAB
35%
65%
34
51
✓
UAB −5.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
3.1%
97%
36
44
✓
CSU −29.7
–
–
Final
#13Oregon@#11UCLA
38%
62%
31
30
✗
UCLA −4.6
–
–
Final
#24Tennessee@#15Georgia
34%
66%
13
18
✓
UGA −6.0
–
–
Final
#20Penn State@#14Michigan
34%
66%
24
27
✓
MICH −5.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
17%
83%
10
36
✓
WAKE −14.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Rutgers
75%
25%
40
0
✓
WVU −11.1
–
–
Final
#3Texas@#5Oklahoma
46%
54%
24
35
✓
OU −1.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
20%
80%
28
32
✓
WASH −13.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Tulane
57%
43%
17
35
✗
CIN −3.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Western Michigan
51%
49%
31
27
✓
UCF −1.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Marshall
2.9%
97%
21
66
✓
MRSH −30.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
52%
48%
36
11
✓
WSU −1.4
–
–
Final
California@#7USC
19%
81%
28
30
✓
USC −13.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
34%
66%
16
12
✗
UK −6.0
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Utah@San Diego StateUpset
82%
18%
17
36
✗
UTAH −15.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@USF
45%
55%
13
16
✓
USF −1.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#12Iowa State
31%
69%
17
31
✓
ISU −7.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Tulsa
91%
8.8%
52
24
✓
BOIS −22.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Vanderbilt
34%
66%
21
20
✗
VAN −6.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana-Monroe
58%
42%
14
34
✗
Idaho −3.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
36%
64%
25
16
✗
UNLV −5.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
5.5%
94%
17
37
✓
TOL −25.2
–
–
Final
#19LSU@#6FloridaUpset
24%
76%
36
7
✗
FLA −10.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#22Oregon State@Arizona StateUpset
49%
51%
9
13
✓
PK
–
–
Final
BYU@Air Force
31%
69%
9
52
✓
AF −7.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Fresno State
6.1%
94%
7
30
✓
FRES −24.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
22%
78%
34
59
✓
HAW −12.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana@New Mexico State
19%
81%
28
31
✓
NMSU −13.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 12 · 2:00 PM ET Liberty at Akron Akron −11.4 77%