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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 25

Wilder than 25% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockNevada over BYU17% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upPenn State over Nebraska21% chance · won 40-7
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Michigan State29% chance · won 46-22

Upsets

Thu, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#17Marshall@#6Virginia Tech
28%
72%
21
47
✓
VT −9.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
#1Miami (FL)@Temple
99%
0.6%
44
21
✓
MIA −41.6
–
–
Final
#12Georgia Tech@ClemsonUpset
53%
47%
19
24
✗
GT −1.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Illinois
4.0%
96%
7
59
✓
ILL −29.2
–
–
Final
California@Michigan State
29%
71%
46
22
✗
MSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#22Wisconsin
14%
86%
21
24
✓
WIS −18.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Auburn
18%
82%
6
31
✓
AUB −15.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
36%
64%
21
26
✓
NU −6.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana Tech
14%
86%
9
53
✓
LT −17.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Purdue
26%
74%
24
28
✓
PUR −10.6
–
–
Final
#15Michigan@#16Notre Dame
42%
58%
23
25
✓
ND −3.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Minnesota
44%
56%
21
31
✓
MINN −2.8
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
USC@Colorado
39%
61%
40
3
✗
COLO −4.7
–
–
Final
#24Washington State@#10Ohio State
29%
72%
7
25
✓
OSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@#11Oregon
0.3%
>99%
21
58
✓
ORE −45.8
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
55%
45%
13
7
✓
UGA −1.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Texas Tech
49%
51%
28
42
✓
TTU −0.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Wyoming
66%
34%
35
13
✓
BOIS −7.0
–
–
Final
#21BYU@NevadaUpset
83%
17%
28
31
✗
BYU −15.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@#2Florida
0.8%
99%
6
34
✓
FLA −39.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Bowling Green
57%
43%
28
51
✗
MIZ −3.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Akron
57%
42%
24
17
✓
CMU −3.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#14IowaUpset
30%
70%
36
31
✗
IOWA −8.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#19NC State
20%
80%
13
32
✓
NCSU −13.8
–
–

Prime time 16 games

Final
Pittsburgh@UAB
58%
42%
26
20
✓
PITT −3.1
–
–
Final
#23USF@ArkansasUpset
43%
57%
3
42
✓
ARK −3.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
15%
85%
17
27
✓
UK −17.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
37%
63%
20
24
✓
ECU −5.8
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
61%
39%
0
44
✗
ARMY −4.5
–
–
Final
#18UCLA@Oklahoma State
67%
33%
38
24
✓
UCLA −7.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@#7Oklahoma
2.7%
97%
0
68
✓
OU −32.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Oregon State
18%
82%
17
47
✓
ORST −15.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Alabama
13%
87%
7
33
✓
ALA −19.0
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Cincinnati
35%
65%
35
32
✗
CIN −6.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
20%
80%
14
33
✓
USM −13.8
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
8.9%
91%
6
17
✓
TCU −22.5
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
43%
57%
24
3
✗
BUF −3.0
–
–
Final
#8Florida State@Maryland
66%
34%
37
10
✓
FSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@New Mexico
29%
71%
0
23
✓
UNM −9.5
–
–
Final
#20Louisville@Colorado StateUpset
51%
49%
33
36
✗
LOU −0.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#13Utah@ArizonaUpset
71%
29%
17
23
✗
UTAH −8.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
15%
86%
26
63
✓
STAN −17.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@San Diego State
63%
37%
39
28
✓
ASU −5.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Miami (OH)@LSU
41%
59%
7
33
✓
LSU −4.0
–
–
Final
#5Texas@North Carolina
67%
33%
52
21
✓
TEX −7.2
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Penn StateUpset
79%
21%
7
40
✗
NEB −13.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Houston
27%
73%
17
36
✓
HOU −10.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Rhode Island at Syracuse Syracuse −27.6 95%
Sat, Sep 14 · 9:05 PM ET Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −16.9 84%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −14.9 81%
Sat, Sep 14 · 2:00 PM ET Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −42.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −9.8 72%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas Kansas −4.0 59%
Sat, Sep 14 · 2:10 PM ET Eastern Illinois at #9 Kansas State Kansas State −52.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 2:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Kent State Kent State −23.2 92%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −0.9 52%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Troy Troy −28.0 95%