The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Diego State over Air Force11% chance · won 38-34
  • Runner-upUConn over Iowa State16% chance · won 37-20
  • Runner-upAuburn over Alabama21% chance · won 17-7

Upsets

Thu, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@#1Miami (FL)
4.9%
95%
21
28
✓
MIA −26.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
West Virginia@#11Virginia TechUpset
25%
75%
21
18
✗
VT −10.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
Illinois@Northwestern
79%
21%
31
24
✓
ILL −13.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
48%
52%
23
21
✗
DUKE −0.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
77%
23%
36
14
✓
BC −12.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air ForceUpset
11%
89%
38
34
✗
AF −19.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
36%
64%
31
49
✓
WIS −5.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
53%
47%
33
30
✓
TOL −1.8
–
–
Final
#19Michigan@#9Ohio State
30%
70%
9
14
✓
OSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
83%
17%
24
0
✓
TENN −16.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#20Notre Dame
1.7%
98%
0
42
✓
ND −33.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisville
9.4%
91%
21
41
✓
LOU −20.6
–
–
Final
UCF@Miami (OH)
32%
68%
48
31
✗
M-OH −6.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ball State
17%
83%
21
41
✓
BALL −14.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
51%
49%
35
10
✓
WMU −0.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Iowa StateUpset
16%
84%
37
20
✗
ISU −15.3
–
–
Final
TCU@East Carolina
68%
32%
28
31
✗
TCU −8.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
6.5%
94%
28
63
✓
OKST −23.9
–
–
Final
Army@Memphis
14%
86%
10
38
✓
MEM −17.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
56%
44%
48
10
✓
AKR −2.9
–
–
Final
#17Arkansas@Mississippi State
85%
15%
26
19
✓
ARK −16.8
–
–

Afternoon 24 games

Final
USF@Houston
82%
18%
32
14
✓
USF −15.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah
29%
71%
6
13
✓
UTAH −8.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
13%
87%
24
38
✓
LT −17.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
33%
67%
21
24
✓
SMU −6.5
–
–
Final
#13Boise State@Nevada
86%
14%
44
7
✓
BOIS −17.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
20%
80%
7
30
✓
CAL −13.2
–
–
Final
#4USC@#16UCLA
56%
44%
52
21
✓
USC −3.0
–
–
Final
#2Kansas State@Missouri
80%
20%
38
0
✓
KSU −14.0
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@#23NC State
61%
39%
7
17
✗
FSU −5.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Wake Forest
4.4%
96%
27
30
✓
WAKE −27.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
77%
23%
24
21
✓
MRSH −12.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@#22Oregon State
34%
66%
24
45
✓
ORST −6.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#10Penn State
9.5%
90%
7
61
✓
PSU −20.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@#8AlabamaUpset
21%
79%
17
7
✗
ALA −12.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Middle Tennessee
55%
45%
30
20
✓
UNT −2.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
10%
90%
10
34
✓
PUR −19.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
62%
38%
10
31
✗
USM −5.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
61%
39%
19
16
✓
FRES −4.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
76%
24%
35
31
✓
NMSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
67%
33%
10
34
✗
UL −7.5
–
–
Final
#12Maryland@VirginiaUpset
70%
30%
13
48
✗
MD −8.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
11%
89%
14
22
✓
CSU −19.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
1.1%
99%
21
63
✓
BGSU −36.6
–
–
Final
Washington@#21Washington StateUpset
28%
72%
29
26
✗
WSU −8.7
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
South Carolina@Clemson
34%
66%
20
27
✓
CLEM −5.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#25LSU
22%
78%
13
14
✓
LSU −12.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Hawaii
45%
55%
19
20
✓
HAW −1.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#24Texas Tech@#3Oklahoma
17%
83%
15
60
✓
OU −15.0
–
–