The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 40

Wilder than 40% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockVillanova over Rutgers16% chance · won 37-19
  • Runner-upLehigh over Buffalo17% chance · won 37-26
  • Runner-upMissouri over Illinois23% chance · won 33-20

Upsets

Thu, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#12Syracuse@BYUUpset
46%
54%
21
42
✓
BYU −1.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Northern Illinois
43%
57%
41
42
✓
NIU −2.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Diego State@#19Fresno State
17%
83%
14
16
✓
FRES −14.1
–
–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
UConn@#20Boston College
9.3%
91%
16
24
✓
BC −20.1
–
–
Final
Washington@#13Michigan
32%
68%
29
31
✓
MICH −6.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Air Force
48%
52%
3
52
✓
AF −0.4
–
–
Final
Akron@#24Iowa
20%
80%
21
57
✓
IOWA −12.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Penn State
39%
61%
24
27
✓
PSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
33%
67%
3
45
✓
ISU −6.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Alabama
28%
72%
34
39
✓
ALA −8.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#14ColoradoUpset
25%
75%
19
14
✗
COLO −10.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@North Carolina
29%
71%
27
21
✗
UNC −8.0
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
Nevada@Washington State
16%
84%
7
31
✓
WSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@California
38%
62%
22
70
✓
CAL −4.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@#4Florida State
3.5%
96%
19
40
✓
FSU −28.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
11%
89%
7
56
✓
MSU −18.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@#17IllinoisUpset
23%
77%
33
20
✗
ILL −11.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#9Tennessee
9.3%
91%
7
47
✓
TENN −20.1
–
–
Final
UAB@#5Florida
14%
86%
3
51
✓
FLA −16.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia Tech
19%
81%
3
45
✓
GT −13.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Duke
71%
29%
16
23
✗
ECU −9.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#10Oregon
23%
77%
13
36
✓
ORE −11.1
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Ole Miss
5.7%
94%
3
31
✓
MISS −24.2
–
–
Final
Troy@#2Nebraska
2.9%
97%
16
31
✓
NEB −29.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Pittsburgh
21%
79%
14
27
✓
PITT −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas A&M
12%
88%
7
31
✓
TA&M −17.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Arkansas State
93%
6.7%
33
14
✓
SJSU −23.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#25South Carolina
18%
82%
24
34
✓
SC −13.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@#18Georgia
32%
68%
28
31
✓
UGA −6.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Boise State
3.1%
97%
21
38
✓
BOIS −28.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@UNLV
38%
62%
27
7
✗
UNLV −4.2
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
65%
35%
23
3
✓
UTAH −6.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#8Oklahoma@Tulsa
84%
16%
37
0
✓
OU −15.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#15LSU@#3Virginia Tech
18%
82%
8
26
✓
VT −13.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Kentucky@#23LouisvilleUpset
24%
76%
22
17
✗
LOU −10.2
–
–

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Notre Dame@#22MarylandUpset
36%
64%
22
0
✗
MD −5.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
26%
74%
24
10
✗
RICE −9.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@#6Texas
10%
90%
0
27
✓
TEX −19.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Louisiana Tech
40%
60%
36
39
✓
LT −3.3
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
32%
68%
38
7
✗
SMU −6.8
–
–

Mon, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
TCU@Cincinnati
43%
57%
29
36
✓
CIN −2.3
–
–

Tue, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Auburn@USC
32%
68%
17
24
✓
USC −6.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic at USF USF −17.9 88%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Bowling Green Bowling Green −43.6 >99%
Thu, Aug 29 · 10:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Oregon State Oregon State −34.6 99%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Temple Temple −21.1 92%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Lehigh at Buffalo Buffalo −14.6 83%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Sam Houston at Central Michigan Central Michigan −6.1 66%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Kent State Kent State −19.3 90%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Toledo Toledo −26.1 96%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Indiana State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −40.5 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 10:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Arizona State Arizona State −17.3 87%
Sat, Aug 31 · 10:07 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −31.8 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 11:05 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Hawaii Hawaii −32.4 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 5:00 PM ET William & Mary at Indiana Indiana −34.0 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State at Minnesota Minnesota −15.7 85%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at NC State NC State −40.2 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Villanova at Rutgers Rutgers −14.8 84%
Sat, Aug 31 · 8:05 PM ET Weber State at New Mexico New Mexico −27.1 96%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Murray State at Memphis Memphis −33.8 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Appalachian State at Marshall Marshall −3.8 61%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Chattanooga at West Virginia West Virginia −33.5 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:10 PM ET Western Kentucky at #11 Kansas State Kansas State −19.3 90%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #1 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −50.4 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 2:00 PM ET Illinois State at Purdue Purdue −46.5 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Jackson State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −26.8 96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 9:05 PM ET Sacramento State at UTEP UTEP −9.0 73%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET Southern at Tulane Tulane −24.3 94%