The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUNLV over BYU20% chance · won 24-3
  • Runner-upTCU over Louisville20% chance · won 45-31
  • Runner-upKentucky over Arkansas23% chance · won 29-17

Upsets

Thu, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
46%
54%
10
34
✓
MD −0.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
29%
71%
21
67
✓
BOIS −8.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 22 games

Final
37%
63%
38
24
✗
CONN −4.7
–
–
Final
2.9%
97%
21
46
✓
BC −30.2
–
–
Final
4.2%
96%
22
24
✓
NCSU −27.4
–
–
Final
32%
68%
27
37
✓
UVA −6.8
–
–
Final
33%
67%
7
34
✓
WVU −6.5
–
–
Final
31%
69%
35
48
✓
MTSU −7.3
–
–
Final
7.9%
92%
0
49
✓
PSU −22.2
–
–
Final
62%
38%
23
21
✓
MICH −5.1
–
–
Final
79%
21%
24
8
✓
IOWA −13.5
–
–
Final
50%
50%
28
7
✗
MINN −0.5
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
17
48
✓
UGA −25.5
–
–
Final
63%
37%
21
24
✗
NEB −5.8
–
–
Final
0.2%
>99%
14
35
✓
VT −46.6
–
–
Final
81%
19%
49
0
✓
M-OH −14.3
–
–
Final
23%
77%
29
17
✗
ARK −11.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#22LouisvilleUpset
20%
80%
45
31
✗
LOU −13.0
–
–
Final
51%
49%
46
30
✓
USF −1.0
–
–
Final
88%
12%
47
22
✓
TA&M −18.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
50
0
✗
KENT −10.8
–
–
Final
23%
77%
14
23
✓
USM −11.1
–
–
Final
30%
70%
0
49
✓
NIU −8.1
–
–
Final
16%
84%
17
42
✓
BALL −15.6
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
4.0%
96%
0
34
✓
COLO −27.8
–
–
Final
12%
88%
42
56
✓
HOU −18.3
–
–
Final
40%
60%
28
20
✗
UTAH −3.6
–
–
Final
69%
31%
34
37
✗
LT −8.5
–
–
Final
60%
40%
24
20
✓
SDSU −4.5
–
–
Final
17%
83%
21
41
✓
USC −14.6
–
–
Final
27%
73%
3
49
✓
OU −9.1
–
–
Final
30%
70%
23
31
✓
CLEM −8.1
–
–
Final
66%
34%
19
14
✓
OSU −7.2
–
–
Final
26%
74%
7
42
✓
ALA −9.9
–
–
Final
24%
76%
45
42
✗
ORE −10.6
–
–
Final
33%
67%
14
35
✓
TULN −6.4
–
–
Final
4.6%
95%
21
34
✓
NMSU −26.7
–
–
Final
40%
60%
24
52
✓
NEV −3.5
–
–
Final
7.8%
92%
7
24
✓
MRSH −22.4
–
–
Final
33%
67%
6
16
✓
STAN −6.4
–
–
Final
60%
40%
44
45
✗
UNM −4.7
–
–
Final
12%
88%
45
48
✓
BGSU −18.4
–
–
Final
46%
54%
27
24
✗
UCF −1.2
–
–
Final
21%
79%
23
30
✓
FLA −12.4
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
51%
49%
12
17
✗
UCLA −0.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@BYUUpset
20%
80%
24
3
✗
BYU −13.2
–
–
Final
66%
34%
13
10
✓
UNT −7.2
–
–
Final
47%
53%
17
14
✗
KSU −0.6
–
–
Final
29%
71%
38
52
✓
TTU −8.5
–
–
Final
21%
79%
14
38
✓
LSU −12.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
43%
57%
21
14
✗
AF −2.2
–
–
Final
72%
28%
35
38
✗
RICE −9.7
–
–
Final
3.0%
97%
14
37
✓
HAW −29.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
34%
66%
29
17
✗
MEM −6.2
–
–