The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 63

Wilder than 63% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockArmy over Tulane5.0% chance · won 14-10
  • Runner-upArizona over California11% chance · won 52-41
  • Runner-upWashington over Oregon25% chance · won 42-14

Upsets

Tue, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Marshall
39%
61%
34
36
✓
MRSH −3.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
49%
51%
20
17
✗
PK
–
–

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Syracuse@Boston College
22%
78%
20
41
✓
BC −11.6
–
–
Final
#23NC State@VirginiaUpset
64%
36%
9
14
✗
NCSU −6.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Navy
68%
32%
38
0
✓
CONN −8.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Troy
27%
73%
19
16
✗
TROY −9.2
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
73%
27%
23
18
✓
UTAH −10.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#19Michigan
23%
77%
14
21
✓
MICH −11.5
–
–
Final
#8Iowa@Minnesota
71%
29%
45
21
✓
IOWA −9.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
57%
43%
45
42
✓
PUR −3.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Mississippi State
73%
27%
35
17
✓
TENN −10.3
–
–
Final
#25Nebraska@#3Kansas State
18%
82%
13
49
✓
KSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
8.0%
92%
2
17
✓
GT −22.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
19%
81%
10
21
✓
AKR −13.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
36%
64%
38
21
✗
CMU −5.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Cincinnati
12%
88%
14
47
✓
CIN −18.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
92%
7.8%
49
21
✓
NIU −23.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
10%
90%
21
41
✓
UK −19.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#11Arkansas
1.1%
99%
17
24
✓
ARK −36.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Baylor
98%
1.5%
49
9
✓
OU −35.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Texas A&M
28%
72%
33
27
✗
TA&M −8.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
79%
21%
55
20
✓
OKST −13.2
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
East Carolina@UAB
56%
44%
29
36
✗
ECU −2.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Tulsa
68%
32%
49
38
✓
SJSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Rice
73%
27%
33
28
✓
HAW −10.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@UNLV
68%
32%
49
32
✓
AF −7.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#12Boise State
4.4%
96%
10
36
✓
BOIS −27.0
–
–
Final
#13Georgia@Auburn
51%
49%
24
21
✓
UGA −0.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@CaliforniaUpset
11%
89%
52
41
✗
CAL −19.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#6Florida State
2.9%
97%
14
40
✓
FSU −30.2
–
–
Final
#15Penn State@Indiana
90%
10%
58
25
✓
PSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
68%
32%
20
17
✓
TEM −8.1
–
–
Final
#7Ohio State@Illinois
71%
29%
23
16
✓
OSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Middle Tennessee
9.2%
91%
28
44
✓
MTSU −20.8
–
–
Final
Washington@#24OregonUpset
25%
75%
42
14
✗
ORE −10.1
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Texas TechUpset
65%
35%
38
42
✗
TEX −6.5
–
–
Final
Army@TulaneUpset
5.0%
95%
14
10
✗
TULN −26.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
68%
32%
42
21
✓
TOL −8.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@North Texas
33%
67%
27
38
✓
UNT −6.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
72%
28%
31
21
✓
ORST −9.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Idaho
47%
53%
38
29
✗
Idaho −0.8
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
47%
53%
42
35
✗
UTEP −0.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#17Florida
18%
82%
7
28
✓
FLA −14.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
33%
67%
20
16
✗
BYU −6.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@UCF
8.3%
92%
6
32
✓
UCF −21.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#16Maryland@Clemson
60%
40%
30
12
✓
MD −4.4
–
–
Final
#9Alabama@#18LSU
47%
53%
31
0
✗
LSU −0.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
81%
19%
49
21
✓
CSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#5USC
11%
89%
13
34
✓
USC −19.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#22Colorado
31%
69%
27
41
✓
COLO −7.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@USF
44%
56%
7
29
✓
USF −2.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno State
29%
71%
30
38
✓
FRES −8.3
–
–