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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 37

Wilder than 37% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockAkron over Marshall14% chance · won 34-20
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over Virginia Tech17% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upBoston College over Notre Dame23% chance · won 14-7

Upsets

Wed, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@TCU
43%
57%
7
37
✓
TCU −2.5
–
–

Thu, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
42%
58%
31
12
✗
AF −2.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Clemson@Duke
74%
26%
34
31
✓
CLEM −10.9
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Rutgers
>99%
0.2%
42
17
✓
MIA −46.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Temple
63%
37%
46
20
✓
WVU −5.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Michigan
16%
84%
3
49
✓
MICH −15.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#10Iowa
22%
78%
3
20
✓
IOWA −12.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
48%
52%
37
41
✓
NU −0.2
–
–
Final
Auburn@Ole Miss
56%
44%
31
24
✓
AUB −2.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Oklahoma State
60%
40%
23
28
✗
TA&M −4.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
9.2%
91%
20
38
✓
M-OH −20.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
63%
37%
7
17
✗
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
78%
22%
47
21
✓
CMU −12.7
–
–
Final
#22Maryland@North Carolina
71%
29%
59
7
✓
MD −9.1
–
–

Afternoon 24 games

Final
Troy@#16Arkansas
5.8%
94%
0
23
✓
ARK −24.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@#21Iowa State
26%
74%
35
42
✓
ISU −9.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
33%
67%
26
21
✗
MEM −6.7
–
–
Final
#9Alabama@Vanderbilt
92%
8.3%
30
8
✓
ALA −22.5
–
–
Final
#7Kansas State@Kansas
95%
5.3%
64
0
✓
KSU −26.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
86%
14%
45
14
✓
BGSU −17.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
4.0%
96%
11
62
✓
TTU −27.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@#11Notre DameUpset
23%
77%
14
7
✗
ND −11.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
62%
38%
45
24
✓
UK −5.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulsa
65%
35%
33
18
✓
RICE −6.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYU
33%
67%
10
34
✓
BYU −6.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@SMU
70%
30%
24
6
✓
NEV −8.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#15NC StateUpset
25%
75%
24
17
✗
NCSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#8Ohio State
20%
80%
3
34
✓
OSU −12.8
–
–
Final
#18Colorado@#2Oklahoma
17%
83%
11
27
✓
OU −14.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@#17Penn State
18%
82%
7
18
✓
PSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#24Washington State
33%
67%
22
44
✓
WSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@AkronUpset
86%
14%
20
34
✗
MRSH −17.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#25Oregon
18%
82%
14
41
✓
ORE −14.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@South Carolina
46%
54%
18
10
✗
SC −1.3
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@Wake Forest
73%
27%
34
21
✓
FSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@#23Oregon State
12%
88%
3
38
✓
ORST −18.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas
5.9%
94%
2
41
✓
UNT −24.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana
24%
76%
28
31
✓
UL −10.6
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#3Texas@Nebraska
64%
36%
27
24
✓
TEX −6.2
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Washington
61%
39%
34
24
✓
UCLA −4.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@UCF
33%
67%
38
35
✗
UCF −6.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
21%
79%
48
49
✓
UNLV −12.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#4Virginia TechUpset
17%
83%
28
21
✗
VT −14.8
–
–
Final
#14Florida@#12Georgia
35%
65%
20
13
✗
UGA −5.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#20Boise State@UTEP
97%
3.3%
58
3
✓
BOIS −29.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
10%
90%
31
40
✓
HAW −19.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@New Mexico State
31%
69%
21
24
✓
NMSU −7.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 2 · 1:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic at UConn UConn −14.6 83%
Sat, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at USF USF −32.0 98%
Sat, Nov 2 · 4:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Arkansas State Arkansas State −19.7 90%