The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 16

Wilder than 16% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Virginia Tech19% chance · won 50-42
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Louisville23% chance · won 24-14
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Oklahoma26% chance · won 30-26

Upsets

Thu, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@LouisvilleUpset
23%
77%
24
14
✗
LOU −11.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 23 games

Final
Kent State@UConn
24%
76%
21
63
✓
CONN −11.1
–
–
Final
#24NC State@#14Maryland
34%
66%
21
24
✓
MD −6.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@North Carolina
61%
39%
42
12
✓
CLEM −4.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Pittsburgh
9.2%
91%
22
29
✓
PITT −20.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@West Virginia
47%
53%
14
24
✓
WVU −0.9
–
–
Final
#13Notre Dame@Navy
96%
3.5%
30
23
✓
ND −29.4
–
–
Final
#7Ohio State@Purdue
71%
29%
10
6
✓
OSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#9Iowa
2.4%
98%
10
62
✓
IOWA −31.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
29%
71%
37
20
✗
WIS −8.5
–
–
Final
#16LSU@Kentucky
55%
44%
33
30
✓
LSU −2.7
–
–
Final
#22Colorado@Missouri
56%
44%
42
35
✓
COLO −2.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@#3Texas
0.4%
>99%
0
41
✓
TEX −42.3
–
–
Final
#15Arkansas@South Carolina
62%
38%
23
0
✓
ARK −5.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
47%
53%
56
21
✗
IU −0.8
–
–
Final
UCF@Buffalo
85%
15%
45
21
✓
UCF −17.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
4.5%
96%
31
33
✓
WMU −26.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Nebraska
3.2%
97%
7
45
✓
NEB −29.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Auburn
0.6%
99%
14
52
✓
AUB −40.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
43%
57%
10
27
✓
OHIO −2.1
–
–
Final
#11Florida@Vanderbilt
90%
9.6%
21
17
✓
FLA −21.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#10Alabama
4.9%
95%
14
28
✓
ALA −26.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
25%
75%
24
49
✓
TTU −10.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
17
26
✗
BGSU −6.3
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Southern Miss@UAB
72%
28%
20
13
✓
USM −9.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Houston
55%
45%
54
48
✓
ECU −2.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
93%
6.6%
49
30
✓
AF −24.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@TCU
18%
82%
10
17
✓
TCU −14.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#17Boise State
5.2%
95%
7
49
✓
BOIS −25.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
58%
42%
30
32
✗
NMSU −3.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Nevada
7.6%
92%
17
23
✓
NEV −22.6
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Georgia Tech
67%
33%
21
13
✓
FSU −7.3
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@SyracuseUpset
81%
19%
42
50
✗
VT −14.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@#18Penn State
19%
81%
14
35
✓
PSU −13.7
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Texas A&MUpset
74%
26%
26
30
✗
OU −10.7
–
–
Final
#21Oregon State@WashingtonUpset
62%
38%
29
41
✗
ORST −5.6
–
–
Final
#23Oregon@#20Washington State
38%
62%
21
32
✓
WSU −4.5
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Tennessee
86%
14%
26
3
✓
MIA −17.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@San Jose State
48%
52%
30
42
✓
SJSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
35%
65%
10
13
✓
UL −5.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@BYU
17%
83%
31
35
✓
BYU −14.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
33%
67%
8
15
✓
UNM −6.5
–
–
Final
California@Arizona State
40%
60%
55
38
✗
ASU −3.6
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Idaho@North Texas
7.4%
93%
0
10
✓
UNT −22.7
–
–
Final
#25Michigan@Minnesota
53%
47%
41
24
✓
MICH −1.8
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Arizona
80%
20%
37
7
✓
UCLA −14.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
#6USC@Stanford
83%
17%
49
17
✓
USC −15.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@USF
10%
90%
28
31
✓
USF −19.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#12Georgia
15%
86%
17
31
✓
UGA −16.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah
22%
78%
17
28
✓
UTAH −11.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Fresno State
6.2%
94%
12
31
✓
FRES −24.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#5Kansas State
23%
77%
7
58
✓
KSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
14%
86%
17
44
✓
TOL −16.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 9 · 5:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Troy Troy −18.2 88%