The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2002

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 26 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 6.0 expected

  • Biggest shockUNLV over Colorado State8.8% chance · won 36-33
  • Runner-upHouston over Louisville15% chance · won 27-10
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Oklahoma15% chance · won 38-28

Upsets

Thu, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
22%
78%
12
24
✓
MISS −12.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Texas A&M@#5Texas
18%
82%
20
50
✓
TEX −14.4
–
–
Final
LSU@#17Arkansas
33%
67%
20
21
✓
ARK −6.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
63%
37%
34
20
✓
ASU −5.6
–
–
Final
#16Colorado@Nebraska
51%
49%
28
13
✓
COLO −0.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Rutgers@#25Boston College
2.3%
98%
14
44
✓
BC −31.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#21Maryland
20%
80%
14
32
✓
MD −12.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
31%
69%
0
24
✓
TENN −7.3
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Syracuse
96%
4.3%
49
7
✓
MIA −27.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
37%
63%
24
17
✗
PITT −4.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@UCF
14%
86%
32
42
✓
UCF −17.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Cincinnati
13%
87%
23
31
✓
CIN −17.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
24%
76%
20
49
✓
UNM −10.9
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@Oklahoma StateUpset
85%
15%
28
38
✗
OU −17.2
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
UNLV@Colorado StateUpset
8.8%
91%
36
33
✗
CSU −21.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@HoustonUpset
85%
15%
10
27
✗
LOU −17.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Middle Tennessee
35%
65%
28
45
✓
MTSU −5.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
28%
72%
7
24
✓
USM −8.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@TCU
14%
86%
20
27
✓
TCU −17.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#12Georgia
26%
74%
7
51
✓
UGA −9.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@#14Virginia Tech
23%
77%
9
21
✓
VT −11.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Marshall
14%
86%
14
38
✓
MRSH −16.9
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#10Alabama@Hawaii
72%
28%
21
16
✓
ALA −9.6
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@#4USC
20%
80%
13
44
✓
USC −12.9
–
–
Final
#13Florida@#7Florida State
32%
68%
14
31
✓
FSU −7.0
–
–

Sun, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
41%
59%
24
42
✓
TOL −3.0
–
–