The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 19 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 66

Wilder than 66% of weeks in the archive.

5 upsets against 5.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMiami (OH) over Northern Illinois14% chance · won 26-21
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over FIU30% chance · won 28-27
  • Runner-upArizona State over Arizona32% chance · won 30-29

Upsets

Thu, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arizona State@#25ArizonaUpset
32%
68%
30
29
✗
ARIZ −6.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Illinois@Fresno State
63%
37%
23
25
✗
ILL −5.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Rutgers@#21West Virginia
9.8%
90%
14
35
✓
WVU −20.3
–
–
Final
SMU@UCF
22%
78%
7
17
✓
UCF −11.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
60%
40%
28
10
✓
PITT −4.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Florida Atlantic
65%
35%
44
7
✓
TROY −6.8
–
–

Afternoon 6 games

Final
Utah State@#1Boise State
0.5%
>99%
14
50
✓
BOIS −41.1
–
–
Final
#24Nevada@Louisiana Tech
80%
20%
35
17
✓
NEV −13.9
–
–
Final
#2Oregon@Oregon State
81%
19%
37
20
✓
ORE −14.5
–
–
Final
#10Auburnvs#14South Carolina
53%
47%
56
17
✓
AUB −1.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Idaho
17%
83%
23
26
✓
Idaho −14.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
30%
70%
28
27
✗
FIU −7.7
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#17Florida Statevs#8Virginia Tech
36%
64%
33
44
✓
VT −5.1
–
–
Final
UConn@USF
38%
62%
19
16
✗
USF −4.5
–
–
Final
#7Oklahomavs#11Nebraska
56%
44%
23
20
✓
OU −2.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
USC@UCLA
68%
32%
28
14
✓
USC −7.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
6.7%
93%
21
59
✓
HAW −23.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern IllinoisvsMiami (OH)Upset
86%
14%
21
26
✗
NIU −17.9
–
–

Sun, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Washington@Washington State
69%
31%
35
28
✓
WASH −8.2
–
–