The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 72

Wilder than 72% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockDuke over Navy12% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Troy15% chance · won 28-14
  • Runner-upVirginia over Miami (FL)17% chance · won 24-19

Upsets

Wed, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@#2Boise State
2.5%
98%
20
49
✓
BOIS −31.2
–
–

Thu, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#19Florida State@NC StateUpset
55%
45%
24
28
✗
FSU −2.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Northwestern@Indiana
53%
47%
20
17
✓
NU −1.8
–
–
Final
#23Clemson@Boston CollegeUpset
76%
24%
10
16
✗
CLEM −11.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Pittsburgh
21%
79%
3
20
✓
PITT −12.5
–
–
Final
#14Miami (FL)@VirginiaUpset
83%
17%
19
24
✗
MIA −15.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
19%
81%
10
44
✓
ILL −13.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@CincinnatiUpset
24%
76%
31
7
✗
CIN −10.5
–
–
Final
#15Oklahoma State@Kansas State
62%
38%
24
14
✓
OKST −5.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern MissUpset
24%
76%
50
49
✗
USM −11.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
67%
33%
28
21
✓
NIU −7.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#21South Carolina
14%
86%
24
38
✓
SC −16.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Temple
3.6%
96%
0
30
✓
TEM −28.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
21%
79%
16
28
✓
ISU −12.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Ohio
13%
87%
31
38
✓
OHIO −17.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
69%
31%
48
38
✓
SDSU −8.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Notre Dame
36%
64%
28
27
✗
ND −5.2
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
North Texas@Western Kentucky
38%
62%
33
6
✗
WKU −4.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Marshall
51%
49%
12
16
✗
UTEP −1.0
–
–
Final
#20Arizona@UCLA
70%
30%
29
21
✓
ARIZ −8.8
–
–
Final
#11Floridavs#24Georgia
60%
40%
34
31
✓
FLA −4.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
35%
65%
14
62
✓
MD −5.7
–
–
Final
#13Missouri@#8Nebraska
36%
64%
17
31
✓
NEB −5.0
–
–
Final
#25California@Oregon StateUpset
49%
51%
7
35
✓
CAL −0.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas A&M
38%
62%
27
45
✓
TA&M −4.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
49%
51%
21
9
✗
PK
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UCF
33%
67%
35
49
✓
UCF −6.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
27%
73%
17
14
✗
CMU −9.1
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@#17Iowa
37%
63%
6
37
✓
IOWA −4.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
29%
71%
14
33
✓
KENT −8.3
–
–
Final
Duke@NavyUpset
12%
88%
34
31
✗
NAVY −18.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
85%
15%
14
28
✗
TROY −16.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
70%
30%
31
17
✓
SMU −9.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico State
52%
48%
27
29
✗
SJSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
79%
21%
42
7
✓
TOL −13.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
53%
47%
9
21
✗
FIU −1.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
21%
79%
14
38
✓
CSU −12.4
–
–
Final
#12Auburn@Ole Miss
70%
30%
51
31
✓
AUB −8.9
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Arkansas
13%
87%
14
49
✓
ARK −17.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona State
11%
89%
0
42
✓
ASU −19.4
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
90%
10%
56
17
✓
HOU −20.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas
32%
68%
30
22
✗
TEX −6.8
–
–
Final
#10Stanford@Washington
80%
20%
41
0
✓
STAN −14.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
31%
69%
17
24
✓
MSST −7.2
–
–
Final
#6Utah@Air Force
70%
30%
28
23
✓
UTAH −9.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@#9Oklahoma
10%
90%
10
43
✓
OU −20.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Utah State@Nevada
6.0%
94%
42
56
✓
NEV −24.5
–
–
Final
#1TCU@UNLV
98%
2.0%
48
6
✓
TCU −33.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@Hawaii
19%
81%
10
45
✓
HAW −13.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
West Virginia@UConn
63%
37%
13
16
✗
WVU −5.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#4Oregon@#16USC
60%
40%
53
32
✓
ORE −4.7
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@Minnesota
93%
7.0%
52
10
✓
OSU −24.0
–
–
Final
Michigan@Penn State
45%
55%
31
41
✓
PSU −1.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 30 · 3:30 PM ET William & Mary at North Carolina North Carolina −37.6 99%
Sat, Oct 30 · 12:00 PM ET VMI at Army Army −35.8 99%