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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 70 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Dakota over Minnesota1.5% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upJames Madison over Virginia Tech5.6% chance · won 21-16
  • Runner-upGardner-Webb over Akron9.8% chance · won 38-37

Upsets

Thu, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Temple
60%
40%
10
13
✗
CMU −4.6
–
–
Final
#22Auburn@Mississippi State
41%
59%
17
14
✗
MSST −3.1
–
–

Fri, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@Marshall
69%
31%
24
21
✓
WVU −8.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UTEP@#18Houston
13%
87%
24
54
✓
HOU −16.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Memphis@East Carolina
10%
90%
27
49
✓
ECU −19.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
21%
79%
48
54
✓
WAKE −12.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#21Wisconsin
2.8%
97%
14
27
✓
WIS −29.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Army
36%
64%
31
28
✗
ARMY −5.1
–
–
Final
Michigan StatevsFlorida Atlantic
73%
27%
30
17
✓
MSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Kansas
50%
50%
25
28
✗
GT −0.6
–
–
Final
#13Georgia@#24South Carolina
44%
56%
6
17
✓
SC −1.9
–
–
Final
USF@#5Florida
20%
80%
14
38
✓
FLA −12.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@#8Nebraska
2.2%
98%
17
38
✓
NEB −31.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
29%
71%
21
28
✓
M-OH −8.1
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
Colorado@California
32%
68%
7
52
✓
CAL −6.8
–
–
Final
Michigan@Notre Dame
34%
66%
28
24
✗
ND −5.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Boston College
19%
81%
13
26
✓
BC −13.2
–
–
Final
#9Miami (FL)@#6Ohio State
31%
69%
24
36
✓
OSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@#11Oklahoma
24%
76%
17
47
✓
OU −10.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
48%
52%
24
31
✓
UL −0.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
35%
65%
7
35
✓
IOWA −5.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah
12%
88%
10
38
✓
UTAH −17.9
–
–
Final
#25BYU@Air ForceUpset
47%
53%
14
35
✓
AF −0.5
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Toledo@OhioUpset
18%
82%
20
13
✗
OHIO −13.4
–
–
Final
Troy@#15Oklahoma State
21%
79%
38
41
✓
OKST −11.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Tulsa
34%
66%
20
33
✓
TLSA −5.6
–
–
Final
#17LSU@Vanderbilt
68%
32%
27
3
✓
LSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Baylor
25%
75%
6
34
✓
BAY −9.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas A&M
22%
78%
16
48
✓
TA&M −11.3
–
–
Final
Rice@North Texas
40%
60%
32
31
✗
UNT −3.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#2Texas
3.7%
96%
7
34
✓
TEX −27.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Washington
37%
63%
20
41
✓
WASH −4.6
–
–
Final
Penn State@#1Alabama
19%
81%
3
24
✓
ALA −13.3
–
–
Final
ArkansasvsLouisiana-Monroe
77%
23%
31
7
✓
ARK −11.9
–
–
Final
#3Oregon@Tennessee
66%
34%
48
13
✓
ORE −6.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Kentucky
6.6%
93%
28
63
✓
UK −23.0
–
–
Final
NC State@UCF
30%
70%
28
21
✗
UCF −7.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
82%
18%
27
13
✓
MISS −14.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#19Stanford@UCLA
59%
41%
35
0
✓
STAN −4.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@#20USC
15%
85%
14
17
✓
USC −15.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Nevada
19%
81%
6
51
✓
NEV −12.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
San Diego State@New Mexico State
53%
47%
41
21
✓
SDSU −1.8
–
–
Final
#16Texas Tech@New Mexico
87%
13%
52
17
✓
TTU −17.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@FIU
71%
29%
19
14
✓
RUTG −9.0
–
–
Final
UAB@SMU
30%
70%
7
28
✓
SMU −7.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 11 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona State Arizona State −31.2 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 10:00 PM ET The Citadel at #12 Arizona Arizona −42.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Texas Southern at UConn UConn −44.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Illinois State at Northwestern Northwestern −36.7 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −30.5 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:00 PM ET Morgan State at Maryland Maryland −34.0 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET South Dakota at Minnesota Minnesota −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Missouri Missouri −36.4 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 1:00 PM ET New Hampshire at #23 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −28.7 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:30 PM ET Presbyterian at #14 Clemson Clemson −41.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 1:30 PM ET James Madison at #10 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −24.4 94%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Montana State at Washington State Washington State −20.8 91%
Sun, Sep 12 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −25.5 95%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Akron Akron −19.6 90%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Liberty at Ball State Ball State −5.6 65%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −47.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:10 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas State Kansas State −16.6 86%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −24.7 95%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:30 PM ET Georgia Southern at Navy Navy −15.2 84%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET North Dakota at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Purdue Purdue −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Southern Miss Southern Miss −25.7 95%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #4 TCU TCU −60.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Western Michigan Western Michigan −38.7 99%