Week 1 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 78 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 14.5 expected

Biggest shockJacksonville State over Ole Miss17% chance · won 49-48
Runner-upNorth Dakota State over Kansas36% chance · won 6-3
Runner-upMaryland over Navy36% chance · won 17-14

Upsets

Cincinnati 14, Fresno State 28#14 Cincinnati lost to unranked Fresno State

Thu, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final

Marshall@

#9Ohio State

18%
82%

7
45

✓

OSU −13.9

–

Final

Minnesota@

Middle Tennessee

39%
61%

24
17

✗

MTSU −4.0

–

Final

Southern Miss@

South Carolina

37%
63%

13
41

✓

SC −4.7

–

Final

#20Pittsburgh@

#24Utah

43%
57%

24
27

✓

UTAH −2.1

–

Late night 1 game

Final

#18USC@

Hawaii

71%
29%

49
36

✓

USC −9.1

–

Fri, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Florida Atlantic@

UAB

38%
62%

32
31

✗

UAB −4.3

–

Final

Northern Illinois@

Iowa State

40%
60%

10
27

✓

ISU −3.3

–

Sat, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final

Miami (OH)@

#2Florida

6.4%
94%

12
34

✓

FLA −23.3

–

Final

Western Michigan@

Michigan State

27%
73%

14
38

✓

MSU −9.0

–

Final

Louisiana@

Georgia

21%
79%

7
55

✓

UGA −12.2

–

Final

Illinoisvs

Missouri

36%
64%

13
23

✓

MIZ −5.2

–

Final

Coloradovs

Colorado State

55%
45%

24
3

✓

COLO −2.5

–

Afternoon 8 games

Final

Purdue@

Notre Dame

35%
65%

12
23

✓

ND −5.5

–

Final

Kentucky@

Louisville

55%
45%

23
16

✓

UK −2.5

–

Final

UConn@

Michigan

53%
47%

10
30

✗

CONN −1.6

–

Final

North Texas@

#16Clemson

14%
86%

10
35

✓

CLEM −16.7

–

Final

#1Texasvs

Rice

90%
9.7%

34
17

✓

TEX −20.6

–

Final

UCLA@

Kansas State

44%
56%

22
31

✓

KSU −1.7

–

Final

New Mexico@

#10Oregon

11%
89%

0
72

✓

ORE −18.3

–

Final

Syracuse@

Akron

49%
51%

29
3

✗

–

Prime time 11 games

Final

Arkansas State@

Auburn

24%
76%

26
52

✓

AUB −10.4

–

Final

Western Kentucky@

#11Nebraska

8.0%
92%

10
49

✓

NEB −21.4

–

Final

Washington State@

Oklahoma State

13%
87%

17
65

✓

OKST −17.0

–

Final

Utah State@

#5Oklahoma

14%
86%

24
31

✓

OU −16.5

–

Final

Washington@

#21BYU

28%
72%

17
23

✓

BYU −8.6

–

Final

San Jose State@

#3Alabama

3.9%
96%

3
48

✓

ALA −27.0

–

Final

Memphis@

Mississippi State

23%
77%

7
49

✓

MSST −10.9

–

Final

Army@

Eastern Michigan

53%
47%

31
27

✓

ARMY −1.5

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Troy

36%
64%

27
30

✓

TROY −5.2

–

Final

Northwestern@

Vanderbilt

46%
54%

23
21

✗

VAN −1.1

–

Final

Oregon Statevs

#4TCU

32%
68%

21
30

✓

TCU −6.8

–

Late night 2 games

Final

#14Cincinnati@

Fresno StateUpset

57%
43%

14
28

✗

CIN −3.3

–

Final

Wisconsin@

UNLV

60%
40%

41
21

✓

WIS −4.2

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Arizona@

Toledo

64%
36%

41
2

✓

ARIZ −6.2

–

Sun, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Tulsa@

East Carolina

35%
65%

49
51

✓

ECU −5.3

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

SMU@

#12Texas Tech

20%
80%

27
35

✓

TTU −12.3

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#17LSUvs

North Carolina

54%
46%

30
24

✓

LSU −2.1

–

Mon, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Navyvs

Maryland

64%
36%

14
17

✗

NAVY −6.0

–

Tue, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#8Boise Statevs

#7Virginia Tech

48%
52%

33
30

✗

VT −0.3

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Thu, Sep 2 · 9:00 PM ET	North Dakota at Idaho	Idaho −9.8	75%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Towson at Indiana	Indiana −27.2	96%
Thu, Sep 2 · 6:30 PM ET	Presbyterian at Wake Forest	Wake Forest −25.6	95%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Norfolk State vs Rutgers	Rutgers −24.2	94%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Ball State	Ball State −32.4	98%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Buffalo	Buffalo −32.2	98%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Hampton at Central Michigan	Central Michigan −27.4	96%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Murray State at Kent State	Kent State −41.0	>99%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Florida A&M at #6 Miami (FL)	Miami (FL) −36.3	99%
Thu, Sep 2 · 9:05 PM ET	Eastern Washington at Nevada	Nevada −33.9	99%
Fri, Sep 3 · TBD	SE Louisiana vs Tulane	Tulane −21.3	92%
Fri, Sep 3 · 5:00 PM ET	Villanova at Temple	Temple −28.0	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Tennessee Tech at #19 Arkansas	Arkansas −44.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 10:00 PM ET	Portland State at Arizona State	Arizona State −35.5	99%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD	Nicholls vs San Diego State	San Diego State −27.4	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:30 PM ET	Sacramento State at #23 Stanford	Stanford −19.5	90%
Sat, Sep 4 · 4:00 PM ET	UC Davis at California	California −31.7	98%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET	Samford at Florida State	Florida State −36.1	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:05 PM ET	Stony Brook at USF	USF −28.5	97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 1:00 PM ET	South Carolina State at #15 Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech −37.6	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 1:00 PM ET	Weber State at Boston College	Boston College −32.3	98%
Sat, Sep 4 · 3:30 PM ET	Jacksonville State at #22 Ole Miss	Ole Miss −14.2	83%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Elon at Duke	Duke −25.8	95%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	Western Carolina at NC State	NC State −37.0	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Wofford at Ohio	Ohio −27.8	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET	Youngstown State at #13 Penn State	Penn State −39.2	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Sam Houston vs Baylor	Baylor −10.6	76%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M	Texas A&M −28.9	97%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD	Texas State vs Houston	Houston −9.4	74%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	Richmond at Virginia	Virginia −25.8	95%
Sat, Sep 4 · 3:30 PM ET	Coastal Carolina at West Virginia	West Virginia −18.9	89%
Sat, Sep 4 · 2:00 PM ET	Northwestern State at Air Force	Air Force −42.2	>99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	South Dakota at UCF	UCF −23.5	94%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:05 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at #25 Iowa	Iowa −39.6	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	North Dakota State at Kansas	Kansas −5.1	64%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	UT Martin at Tennessee	Tennessee −44.1	>99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 9:05 PM ET	Arkansas-Pine Bluff at UTEP	UTEP −21.2	92%
Sat, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at Wyoming	Wyoming −26.5	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech vs Grambling	Louisiana Tech −30.5	97%