The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 35 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington over Nebraska14% chance · won 19-7
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Kansas State32% chance · won 36-34
  • Runner-upArmy over SMU33% chance · won 16-14

Upsets

Sat, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
BYUvsUTEP
73%
27%
52
24
✓
BYU −10.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Northern IllinoisvsFresno State
69%
31%
40
17
✓
NIU −8.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
OhiovsTroy
48%
52%
21
48
✓
TROY −0.4
–
–

Tue, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsLouisville
52%
48%
28
31
✗
USM −1.2
–
–

Wed, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23Utahvs#1Boise State
20%
80%
3
26
✓
BOIS −13.2
–
–

Thu, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@San Diego State
51%
49%
14
35
✗
NAVY −0.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
HawaiivsTulsa
55%
45%
35
62
✗
HAW −2.6
–
–

Sun, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
FIUvsToledo
45%
55%
34
32
✗
TOL −1.6
–
–

Mon, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Air ForcevsGeorgia Tech
61%
39%
14
7
✓
AF −4.8
–
–

Tue, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#21West VirginiavsNC StateUpset
58%
42%
7
23
✗
WVU −3.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#14Missourivs#24Iowa
57%
43%
24
27
✗
MIZ −3.4
–
–

Wed, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
East CarolinavsMaryland
31%
69%
20
51
✓
MD −7.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
IllinoisvsBaylor
55%
45%
38
14
✓
ILL −2.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Oklahoma StatevsArizona
68%
32%
36
10
✓
OKST −8.1
–
–

Thu, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Army@SMU
33%
67%
16
14
✗
SMU −6.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Kansas StatevsSyracuse
68%
32%
34
36
✗
KSU −8.1
–
–
Final
North CarolinavsTennessee
53%
46%
30
27
✓
UNC −1.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#11NebraskavsWashingtonUpset
86%
14%
7
19
✗
NEB −17.7
–
–

Fri, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
USFvsClemson
35%
65%
31
26
✗
CLEM −5.8
–
–
Final
Notre Damevs#20Miami (FL)Upset
41%
59%
33
17
✗
MIA −3.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
GeorgiavsUCF
54%
46%
6
10
✗
UGA −1.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18South Carolinavs#17Florida State
48%
52%
17
26
✓
FSU −0.2
–
–

Sat, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
NorthwesternvsTexas Tech
28%
72%
38
45
✓
TTU −8.9
–
–
Final
#5AlabamavsMichigan State
78%
22%
49
7
✓
ALA −13.0
–
–
Final
#15FloridavsPenn State
72%
28%
37
24
✓
FLA −9.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi StatevsMichigan
60%
40%
52
14
✓
MSST −4.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#13Wisconsinvs#3TCU
28%
72%
19
21
✓
TCU −8.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UConnvs#8Oklahoma
14%
86%
20
48
✓
OU −16.6
–
–

Mon, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Stanfordvs#7Virginia Tech
55%
45%
40
12
✓
STAN −2.4
–
–

Tue, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4Ohio Statevs#12Arkansas
65%
35%
31
26
✓
OSU −6.4
–
–

Thu, Jan 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsMiami (OH)
47%
53%
21
35
✓
M-OH −0.8
–
–

Fri, Jan 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16LSUvs#19Texas A&M
52%
48%
41
24
✓
LSU −1.1
–
–

Sat, Jan 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsKentucky
65%
35%
27
10
✓
PITT −6.5
–
–

Sun, Jan 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22NevadavsBoston College
75%
25%
20
13
✓
NEV −11.3
–
–

Mon, Jan 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9Auburnvs#2Oregon
36%
64%
22
19
✗
ORE −5.3
–
–