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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Texas12% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upSyracuse over West Virginia12% chance · won 19-14
  • Runner-upTulane over UTEP20% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Thu, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@#4Oregon
10%
90%
13
60
✓
ORE −19.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#22Michigan State@Northwestern
67%
33%
35
27
✓
MSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Penn State@Minnesota
62%
38%
33
21
✓
PSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#6Ohio State
5.9%
94%
0
49
✓
OSU −24.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
24%
76%
21
41
✓
PITT −10.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#19TexasUpset
12%
88%
28
21
✗
TEX −18.7
–
–
Final
Duke@#8Virginia Tech
3.1%
97%
7
44
✓
VT −29.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West VirginiaUpset
12%
88%
19
14
✗
WVU −18.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
26%
74%
13
43
✓
ILL −9.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Buffalo
62%
38%
42
0
✓
TEM −5.6
–
–
Final
Notre DamevsNavy
57%
43%
17
35
✗
ND −3.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
30%
70%
24
38
✓
ARK −7.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Boston College
44%
56%
24
21
✗
BC −1.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
58%
42%
34
13
✓
OHIO −3.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Arkansas State
33%
67%
16
37
✓
ARST −6.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@BYU
24%
76%
20
25
✓
BYU −10.7
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
#15LSU@#13Auburn
38%
62%
17
24
✓
AUB −4.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@California
31%
69%
17
50
✓
CAL −7.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Colorado
57%
43%
27
24
✓
TTU −3.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Louisville
50%
50%
0
26
✓
CONN −0.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
28%
72%
30
6
✗
BGSU −8.7
–
–
Final
#10Nebraska@#12Oklahoma State
42%
58%
51
41
✗
OKST −2.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#25Clemson
31%
68%
13
27
✓
CLEM −7.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Baylor
40%
60%
42
47
✓
BAY −3.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
72%
28%
56
10
✓
WMU −9.7
–
–
Final
Rice@UCF
7.5%
92%
14
41
✓
UCF −22.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#17IowaUpset
31%
68%
31
30
✗
IOWA −7.2
–
–
Final
Houston@SMU
45%
55%
45
20
✗
SMU −1.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
32%
68%
7
33
✓
NIU −7.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@East Carolina
16%
84%
10
37
✓
ECU −15.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Middle Tennessee
25%
75%
10
38
✓
MTSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#7Stanford
0.9%
99%
28
38
✓
STAN −37.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
12%
88%
14
37
✓
Idaho −18.2
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana
28%
72%
54
21
✗
UL −8.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah State
67%
33%
45
7
✓
HAW −7.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#9Utah
2.5%
98%
6
59
✓
UTAH −31.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Virginia
11%
89%
21
48
✓
UVA −19.0
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#23South Carolina@Vanderbilt
74%
26%
21
7
✓
SC −10.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Mississippi State
11%
89%
24
29
✓
MSST −19.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Kansas
68%
32%
45
10
✓
TA&M −7.9
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@Tennessee
86%
14%
41
10
✓
ALA −18.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
20%
80%
24
31
✓
TOL −12.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@Kentucky
53%
47%
44
31
✓
UGA −1.6
–
–
Final
#21North Carolina@#18Miami (FL)
37%
63%
10
33
✓
MIA −4.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@UTEPUpset
20%
80%
34
24
✗
UTEP −12.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
91%
9.0%
30
20
✓
SDSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Washington@#24Arizona
19%
80%
14
44
✓
ARIZ −13.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
USF@Cincinnati
32%
68%
38
30
✗
CIN −6.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
83%
17%
33
18
✓
FRES −15.7
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@#14Missouri
51%
49%
27
36
✗
OU −0.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@#2TCU
15%
86%
7
38
✓
TCU −16.5
–
–