The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 17

Wilder than 17% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Wyoming27% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upMarshall over UAB28% chance · won 31-17
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Florida State29% chance · won 37-35

Upsets

Tue, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
37%
63%
24
51
✓
ARST −4.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Rutgers@USF
31%
69%
27
28
✓
USF −7.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Ohio
14%
86%
17
34
✓
OHIO −16.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#8Virginia Tech
15%
85%
21
28
✓
VT −16.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
36%
64%
22
26
✓
CMU −5.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#13Iowa@Indiana
86%
14%
18
13
✓
IOWA −18.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
9.3%
91%
8
31
✓
MSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan
46%
54%
65
67
✓
MICH −0.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
56%
44%
48
55
✗
UVA −2.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
41%
59%
28
20
✗
SYR −3.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Clemson
36%
64%
13
14
✓
CLEM −5.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
64%
36%
42
22
✓
AF −6.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#16Miami (FL)
17%
83%
20
26
✓
MIA −14.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
80%
20%
34
13
✓
WIS −14.0
–
–
Final
#12Florida@Vanderbilt
87%
13%
55
14
✓
FLA −18.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#15Oklahoma State
25%
75%
28
55
✓
OKST −10.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Ball State
22%
78%
30
37
✓
BALL −12.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulsa
10%
90%
27
64
✓
TLSA −19.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@BYU
18%
82%
7
55
✓
BYU −14.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
61%
39%
45
52
✗
COLO −5.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Kent State
63%
37%
28
10
✓
TEM −5.8
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
16%
84%
22
27
✓
USU −15.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#20Florida StateUpset
29%
71%
37
35
✗
FSU −8.5
–
–
Final
#7Nebraska@Iowa State
82%
18%
31
30
✓
NEB −14.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#3Boise State
9.8%
90%
7
42
✓
BOIS −20.3
–
–
Final
#4Alabama@#18LSU
64%
36%
21
24
✗
ALA −6.4
–
–
Final
Navy@East Carolina
45%
55%
76
35
✗
ECU −1.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
54%
46%
23
13
✓
BC −2.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Penn State
26%
74%
21
35
✓
PSU −9.9
–
–
Final
#1TCU@#6Utah
54%
46%
47
7
✓
TCU −2.3
–
–
Final
Washington@#2Oregon
3.4%
97%
16
53
✓
ORE −28.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
75%
25%
46
30
✓
USM −11.0
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
90%
9.8%
20
13
✓
CAL −21.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Louisiana Tech
54%
46%
40
34
✓
FRES −2.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@UAB
28%
72%
31
17
✗
UAB −8.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Western Kentucky
57%
43%
17
16
✓
FAU −3.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Idaho
80%
20%
63
17
✓
NEV −13.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
72%
28%
31
34
✗
WYO −10.0
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#25Oregon State@UCLAUpset
65%
35%
14
17
✗
ORST −6.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Ole Miss
9.2%
91%
21
43
✓
MISS −20.8
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Texas A&MUpset
63%
37%
19
33
✗
OU −5.9
–
–
Final
Troy@North Texas
74%
26%
41
35
✓
TROY −10.5
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@#22South Carolina
43%
57%
41
20
✗
SC −2.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@FIU
30%
70%
35
42
✓
FIU −8.1
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
60%
40%
14
28
✗
SMU −4.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
15%
85%
19
24
✓
SDSU −16.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#21USC
22%
78%
33
34
✓
USC −11.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCF@Houston
44%
56%
40
33
✗
HOU −1.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#17Arizona@#10Stanford
31%
70%
17
42
✓
STAN −7.7
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Memphis
81%
19%
50
14
✓
TENN −14.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Kansas State
50%
50%
14
39
✓
TEX −0.3
–
–
Final
#14Missouri@Texas TechUpset
67%
33%
17
24
✗
MIZ −7.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 6 · 1:00 PM ET Chattanooga at #11 Auburn Auburn −51.0 >99%
Sat, Nov 6 · 12:30 PM ET Idaho State at #24 Georgia Georgia −55.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 6 · 12:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Kentucky Kentucky −46.5 >99%